Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:56:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07b4…d3fd other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$42 (-3%) realized −$37 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$159
other 40% −$217
crypto 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-52.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -47.6% -52.5% 36% 29% -13.1%
≤30d 14 -47.6% -52.5% 36% 29% -13.1%
≤90d 14 -47.6% -52.5% 36% 29% -13.1%
all 14 -47.6% -52.5% 36% 29% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.5% 29% -13.1%
10% -57.1% 21% -21.4%
15% -61.2% 21% -29.0%
20% -65.0% 21% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$58 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 18
History coverage3d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? No 49¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$55 +54%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $9 −$9 -97%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 +$95 +93%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$1 +1%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $411 +$277 +67%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $151 −$150 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $203 +$37 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $102 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $156 5h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 6h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 22h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 56¢ $101 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $102 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 70¢ $51 37h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 49¢ $51 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 44h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 44h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 47¢ $51 2d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 18¢ $20 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $688 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $6 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $400 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $6 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $151 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 56¢ $240 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $203 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.65 · official $224.65 (match) · 28 history records