Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:00:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
07 0x07b4…aedf other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$160 (+22%) realized +$140 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR78%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$275now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$124
crypto 22% +$48
sports 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)+6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +17.1% +6.0% 78% 78% +21.3%
≤30d 9 +17.1% +6.0% 78% 78% +21.3%
≤90d 9 +17.1% +6.0% 78% 78% +21.3%
all 9 +17.1% +6.0% 78% 78% +21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.0% 78% +21.3%
10% -4.2% 67% +9.7%
15% -13.4% 56% -0.9%
20% -21.9% 33% -10.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$6 · ×3.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.15 per $1 lost it wins $13.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$275
Realized+$140
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage3d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $240 $248 +$8 (+3%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score No 57¢ 100¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+75%)
Japan leading at halftime? Yes 52¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $161 +$77 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $134 +$36 +27%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $70 +$8 +12%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +110%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$11 +52%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $240 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $10 1h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $151 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $170 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 93¢ $93 12h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 47h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $70 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $9 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $274.96 · official $274.96 (match) · 24 history records