Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:21:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
07 0x07b2…1960 sports 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$58 (-1%) realized −$83 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%27W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$153
14 days−$64
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$411
other 25% +$331
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -39.2% -45.0% 29% 29% -51.6%
≤30d 24 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 50% -11.2%
≤90d 24 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 50% -11.2%
all 52 -1.9% -11.3% 52% 50% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 50% -11.1%
10% -19.8% 46% -19.6%
15% -27.5% 38% -27.4%
20% -34.6% 35% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$63 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses27 / 25
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions3
Markets (closed)52 / 55
History coverage153d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 38¢ 69¢ $50 $90 +$40 (+80%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $75 $66 −$9 (-12%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 60¢ 45¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $51 −$43 -84%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $50 −$50 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $51 −$7 -14%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $51 +$33 +65%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $25 +$15 +60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $50 −$50 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$40 -78%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $30 +$20 +67%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $25 +$40 +158%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 +$53 +52%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$51 +250%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$71 +140%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 +$22 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $121 +$39 +32%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Mar 22 $133 −$133 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 22 $102 +$30 +30%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 21 $80 −$59 -73%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner Mar 21 $131 −$131 -100%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 21 $194 −$179 -92%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Mar 21 $75 +$57 +75%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 20 $30 +$45 +150%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 3 Winner Mar 20 $72 +$123 +170%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Mar 20 $70 −$45 -65%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Mar 20 $80 −$76 -96%
First Blood in Game 1? Mar 20 $100 +$1 +1%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales - Game 2 Winner Mar 19 $100 +$11 +11%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 Winner Mar 18 $100 +$14 +14%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner Mar 18 $70 +$41 +59%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX - Game 3 Winner Mar 18 $80 −$20 -25%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 17 $106 +$36 +34%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 17 $51 +$35 +69%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 16 $20 +$11 +53%
First Round Pool C: Australia vs. South Korea Mar 16 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Mar 16 $150 −$68 -45%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Mar 16 $100 +$22 +22%
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. Australia Mar 08 $120 +$45 +38%
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Chinese Taipei Mar 08 $59 +$81 +136%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN Freecs - Game 1 Winner Mar 07 $58 −$58 -100%
First Round Pool C: Australia vs. Chinese Taipei Mar 07 $60 −$60 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 45¢ $18 1m
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Over 3¢ $0 28m
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Over 3¢ $8 28m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $51 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $51 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $50 5h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 47¢ $44 22h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $51 23h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $51 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $25 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $51 6d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $51 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 7d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $50 7d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 8d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 13¢ $11 9d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $51 9d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $2 10d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $12 10d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $4 10d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $12 10d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $25 10d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 47¢ $51 11d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 12d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 12d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $101 12d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 12d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 12d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.73 · official $174.73 (match) · 166 history records