Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:27:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
07 0x07b2…5186 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-11%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$41
sports 21% +$13
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +7.3% -2.9% 80% 40% -19.6%
≤30d 5 +7.3% -2.9% 80% 40% -19.6%
≤90d 5 +7.3% -2.9% 80% 40% -19.6%
all 5 +7.3% -2.9% 80% 40% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 40% -19.6%
10% -12.2% 20% -27.3%
15% -20.7% 20% -34.3%
20% -28.5% 20% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$50 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 +$4 +7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 5h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 87¢ $50 6h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 18h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 20h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 47h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.98 · official $8.98 (match) · 12 history records