Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:54:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
07 0x07a9…4665 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 226d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,400 (-33%) realized −$1,376 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%4W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$491now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$611
7 days+$611
14 days+$611
30 days+$611
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$1,850
other 28% +$239
economics 4% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +62.4% +46.9% 20% 20% +42.9%
≤30d 10 +62.4% +46.9% 20% 20% +42.9%
≤90d 10 +62.4% +46.9% 20% 20% +42.9%
all 16 +26.5% +14.4% 25% 25% -46.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.4% 25% -46.3%
10% +3.5% 25% -51.4%
15% -6.5% 25% -56.1%
20% -15.7% 19% -60.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late +103% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$425 vs −$267 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$491
Realized−$1,376
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses4 / 12
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions6
Markets (closed)16 / 22
History coverage226d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $103 +$1,008 +982%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 +$453 +442%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 14 $191 +$83 +44%
Ravens vs. Vikings Nov 06 $156 −$156 -100%
Magic vs. Hawks Nov 06 $100 +$156 +156%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-04? Nov 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-04? Nov 04 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 04 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 19h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 19h
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 19h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 19h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 19h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 19h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 46h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 46h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 4¢ $103 46h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 19¢ $102 46h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 46h
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 46¢ $274 216d
Ravens vs. Vikings BUY Vikings 35¢ $156 224d
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 33¢ $100 224d
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 31¢ $91 225d
Magic vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 39¢ $100 225d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-04? BUY Yes 37¢ $100 225d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-04? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 225d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 39¢ $2,000 225d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $491.41 · official $491.44 (match) · 28 history records