Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:47:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
07 0x07a9…c1d5 crypto 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$285 (+6%) realized +$285 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate57%71W / 53L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day28.1pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$83
7 days+$184
14 days+$293
30 days+$293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$296
other 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 +0.3% -9.2% 51% 27% -5.4%
≤30d 124 +2.4% -7.4% 57% 40% -3.9%
≤90d 124 +2.4% -7.4% 57% 40% -3.9%
all 124 +2.4% -7.4% 57% 40% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 40% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 34% -13.1%
15% -24.3% 30% -21.5%
20% -31.7% 23% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$285
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses71 / 53
Open positions0
Markets (closed)124 / 124
History coverage10d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 124 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $35 +$65 +186%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $97 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$11 +122%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 +$9 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$33 +125%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $44 −$1 -2%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $29 −$28 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $81 +$6 +7%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $19 +$11 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 +$11 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $180 +$20 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $292 +$8 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$17 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$12 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $294 +$6 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$36 +257%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $45 +$5 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$7 +233%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$80 +783%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$8 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$8 +395%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$8 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$13 +186%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$24 +425%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $25 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $53 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $9 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $12 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $11 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 26h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $44 26h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 57¢ $29 26h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $44 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $33 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $16 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 397 history records