Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:34:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07a9…be82 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-6%) realized −$3 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$1
crypto 23% $0
sports 6% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -31.7% -38.2% 33% 33% -17.5%
≤30d 3 -31.7% -38.2% 33% 33% -17.5%
≤90d 3 -31.7% -38.2% 33% 33% -17.5%
all 3 -31.7% -38.2% 33% 33% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.2% 33% -17.5%
10% -44.1% 33% -25.4%
15% -49.5% 33% -32.6%
20% -54.5% 33% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage4d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Yes 39¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+156%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 43¢ $1 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 45¢ $4 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.56 · official $2.56 (match) · 8 history records