Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:07:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07a8…e3cf politics 139 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$726 (+1%) realized +$724 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate22%30W / 108L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$1,038per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$803now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$11
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$71
other 36% −$39
sports 13% +$815
culture 3% −$7
world 2% −$11
crypto 2% +$4
tech 1% +$2
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 59 +0.9% -8.7% 8% 3% -9.0%
all 138 -0.4% -9.9% 22% 10% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 10% -9.1%
10% -18.5% 10% -17.8%
15% -26.4% 7% -25.7%
20% -33.6% 7% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,511) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$6 · ×7.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$803
Realized+$724
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses30 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage149d
Avg bet$1,038
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $802 $803 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 28 $1,465 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $206 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $283 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $285 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $591 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $3,569 −$4 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2,651 −$3 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $1,653 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $3,226 −$4 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3,385 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,533 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1,531 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,444 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2,664 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,274 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $710 +$3 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,196 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $1,188 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $3,205 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $996 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $2,238 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $2,601 −$3 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $1,175 −$2 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? May 19 $887 −$1 -0%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $1,350 +$391 +29%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $1,577 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $5,917 −$6 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,537 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $2,998 −$5 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,533 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,563 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $1,489 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,487 −$2 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,525 −$2 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,490 −$2 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 02 $733 +$2 +0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $735 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $749 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,548 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $3,030 −$3 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,547 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $4,277 −$4 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 17 $1,456 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,562 −$2 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,551 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $2,242 −$2 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $1,571 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,376 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $2,140 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $291 1h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $292 4h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $205 26h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $206 27h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $283 7d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $283 7d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $285 8d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $285 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $590 10d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $591 10d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $262 10d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $263 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $802 12d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,033 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,034 14d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,651 15d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,653 16d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,567 16d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,570 16d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,442 17d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,444 17d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,531 21d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,533 21d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,529 22d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,531 22d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,442 24d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,444 25d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,432 25d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,434 25d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,272 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $803.38 · official $803.38 (match) · 432 history records