Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:17:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07a7…946c crypto 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (215 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$14 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate52%26W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day215.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$146
sports 5% +$30
other 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (215 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +15.3% +4.3% 52% 30% -15.6%
≤30d 50 +15.3% +4.3% 52% 30% -15.6%
≤90d 50 +15.3% +4.3% 52% 30% -15.6%
all 50 +15.3% +4.3% 52% 30% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover215.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.3% 30% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -5.7% 20% -23.7%
15% -14.8% 14% -31.1%
20% -23.1% 10% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses26 / 24
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)50 / 55
History coverage1d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day215.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $133 −$124 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $171 +$15 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $66 −$59 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $61 −$12 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$21 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $205 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $72 +$12 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $177 −$7 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$11 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $45 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $170 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $132 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $80 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$5 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$9 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +17%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$6 +29%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$7 -68%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +49%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 +$3 +73%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$17 +1666%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -52%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $1 $0 -43%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 +$4 +421%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$3 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $7 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $11 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $9 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $51 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $51 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $171 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $15 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $6 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $46 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $51 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $62 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 32m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.28 · official $35.28 (match) · 241 history records