Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:38:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07a6…adc5 other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate45%20W / 24L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$1
other 30% +$2
politics 11% $0
sports 1% +$1
tech 1% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.7%
≤30d 15 +0.9% -8.7% 27% 7% -9.5%
≤90d 15 +0.9% -8.7% 27% 7% -9.5%
all 44 +0.2% -9.4% 45% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 2% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses20 / 24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage453d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $42 $43 +$0 (+1%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 81¢ 91¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $89 +$2 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 07 $39 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $54 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $93 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $94 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $50 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $146 −$4 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $81 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $54 +$4 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $33 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 30 $7 $0 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $2 $0 +16%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $55 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $53 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Dec 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Dec 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft buy TikTok? Jun 04 $6 −$2 -29%
Will Esteban Ocon finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? Jun 02 $23 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton be named in Epstein files? Jun 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June? May 31 $23 $0 +1%
Will Gold hit $3,600 before June? May 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? May 29 $23 $0 +1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 28 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 23 $21 +$1 +3%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $95000 and $97000 on May 9? May 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 08 $43 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw May 08 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $21 $0 +1%
Will Sweden qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League? May 06 $21 $0 -0%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? May 06 $22 +$1 +4%
500+ Measles cases in U.S. before April? Mar 30 $22 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $42 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $43 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 45¢ $40 14h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $31 18h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $30 21h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $4 26h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $43 26h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 54¢ $46 27h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 54¢ $3 27h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $13 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $23 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $54 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $54 16d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $44 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $29 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $16 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $43 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $43 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $49 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $49 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $22 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $22 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.46 · official $43.46 (match) · 159 history records