Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:02:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x079e…468f politics 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate28%10W / 26L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$331per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$7
other 29% −$44
economics 10% −$2
finance 8% −$1
tech 5% +$27
crypto 5% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.7% -7.1% 100% 0% -7.1%
≤30d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 29% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 22 +0.1% -9.4% 18% 0% -9.6%
all 36 -3.8% -13.0% 28% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 3% -9.7%
10% -21.3% 3% -18.4%
15% -28.9% 3% -26.3%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$543) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses10 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage219d
Avg bet$331
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 25 $107 +$3 +3%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $104 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $104 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $104 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $105 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $103 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $106 +$2 +2%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $977 −$2 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 15 $977 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $978 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $980 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 15 $981 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $1,526 −$2 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $111 +$1 +0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $540 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 15 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 15 $542 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Apr 15 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $544 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 11 $65 +$1 +1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 14 $66 $0 -1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 14 $66 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 01 $66 $0 +1%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Feb 19 $124 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 19 $62 +$4 +7%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 01 $58 +$4 +6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 19 $54 +$4 +7%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Dec 23 $23 +$9 +39%
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale? Dec 01 $14 −$14 -100%
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale? Dec 01 $25 −$25 -100%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 01 $23 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $110 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $107 20d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $104 20d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $104 20d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $104 20d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $104 21d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $104 21d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $104 21d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $105 21d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $105 21d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $103 21d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $103 21d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 98¢ $106 36d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $975 41d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $977 41d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 99¢ $976 41d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $977 41d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $977 41d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $978 41d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $978 41d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $980 41d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $979 41d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $981 41d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $983 41d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $984 41d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $111 64d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $539 70d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $540 70d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $540 70d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $541 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records