Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:21:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x079e…bcf3 sports 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$404 (-57%) realized −$405 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$246
7 days+$38
14 days−$156
30 days−$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$106
other 38% −$51
crypto 16% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +23.0% +11.3% 50% 50% -0.6%
≤30d 7 -29.7% -36.4% 29% 29% -34.1%
≤90d 10 -21.1% -28.6% 40% 30% -32.9%
all 10 -21.1% -28.6% 40% 30% -32.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 30% -32.9%
10% -35.4% 30% -39.3%
15% -41.7% 30% -45.2%
20% -47.4% 30% -50.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$69 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$405
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage41d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? No 59¢ 60¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $74 +$126 +170%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $99 +$120 +122%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $205 −$205 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 20 $11 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 20 $10 $0 +1%
Hamburg European Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Ben Shelton May 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 59¢ $100 14m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 100¢ $200 49m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 37¢ $9 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 37¢ $22 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 37¢ $12 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 37¢ $12 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 37¢ $18 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 37¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 37¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL No 100¢ $219 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 45¢ $99 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Under 17¢ $3 6d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $205 6d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 47¢ $23 10d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 12d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 12d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $12 12d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $46 12d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 50¢ $104 12d
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) BUY Knicks 51¢ $11 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 41d
Hamburg European Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Ben Shelton BUY Ben Shelton 89¢ $11 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.15 · official $101.15 (match) · 25 history records