Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:58:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x079d…b86b crypto 300 markets active 0h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$171 (-17%) realized −$171 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate64%191W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$200
7 days−$200
14 days−$224
30 days−$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$184
other 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 -38.4% -44.3% 37% 37% -45.4%
≤30d 136 -38.0% -43.9% 38% 37% -44.4%
≤90d 297 -5.7% -14.7% 64% 52% -23.2%
all 300 -6.0% -15.0% 64% 51% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 51% -25.8%
10% -23.1% 43% -32.9%
15% -30.6% 32% -39.3%
20% -37.4% 21% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$171
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses191 / 109
Open positions0
Markets (closed)300 / 300
History coverage130d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 300 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +73%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +62%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$5 -97%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +60%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +70%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +57%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +60%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +101%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +62%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +44%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +73%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +70%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 17m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 17m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 17m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 43m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 43m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $7 53m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 604 history records