Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:26:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
07 0x079c…d973 sports 378 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%369W / 7L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$12
other 23% +$4
weather 6% +$1
finance 3% +$1
tech 3% +$1
crypto 2% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 195 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 376 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
all 376 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×33.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1761.45 per $1 lost it wins $1761.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses369 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)376 / 378
History coverage44d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 376 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Yaxel Lendeborg be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 23? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
England vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Arcium FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Nuno Mendes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Lotte Giants Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
ITF Kayseri: Ayline Samardzic vs Julia Khramtsova Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will North Carolina win the 2026 College World Series? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
O/U 4.5 Rounds Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
WTT - Men's Singles: Guan-Hong Kuo vs Dang Qiu Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yaxel Lendeborg be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
England vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 4h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 5h
Arcium FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $50 6h
Will Nuno Mendes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 7h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova BUY Hayu Kinoshita 100¢ $50 8h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $50 8h
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Lotte Giants BUY Lotte Giants 100¢ $50 13h
ITF Kayseri: Ayline Samardzic vs Julia Khramtsova BUY Ayline Samardzic 100¢ $50 14h
Will North Carolina win the 2026 College World Series? BUY No 100¢ $50 23h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 24h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 100¢ $50 25h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 100¢ $50 2d
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner BUY FOKUS 100¢ $50 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 100¢ $50 2d
O/U 4.5 Rounds BUY Under 100¢ $50 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 3d
WTT - Men's Singles: Guan-Hong Kuo vs Dang Qiu BUY Qiu 100¢ $50 3d
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 3d
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 100¢ $50 3d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.95 · official $99.95 (match) · 767 history records