Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:22:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0799…e7ea weather 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$35 (+1%) realized −$45 · open +$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate94%32W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day35.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,441now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.1% -9.6% 94% 6% -10.7%
≤30d 34 -0.1% -9.6% 94% 6% -10.7%
≤90d 34 -0.1% -9.6% 94% 6% -10.7%
all 34 -0.1% -9.6% 94% 6% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 6% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 0% -19.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -27.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$117 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,441
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$80
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses32 / 2
Open positions10
Markets (closed)34 / 44
History coverage4d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day35.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 24? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $148 $163 +$14 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 24? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $146 $158 +$12 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 24? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $142 $158 +$16 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 24? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $149 $157 +$8 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 24? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $149 $157 +$8 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 24? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $149 $156 +$7 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 24? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $149 $155 +$6 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 24? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $150 $154 +$4 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 24? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $149 $153 +$4 (+3%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 24? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 24 $150 +$8 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 23? Jun 24 $150 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 24 $149 +$8 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 23? Jun 24 $150 +$8 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 23? Jun 24 $149 +$8 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 23? Jun 24 $149 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 23? Jun 24 $149 +$12 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 23? Jun 24 $149 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 23? Jun 24 $150 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $139 +$13 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 23? Jun 23 $99 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $67 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 23? Jun 23 $120 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $100 +$10 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $99 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $120 −$119 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $115 −$115 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 23 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? Jun 23 $99 +$11 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 22? Jun 23 $100 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 23 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 22? Jun 23 $99 +$11 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 22? Jun 23 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 22? Jun 23 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 22? Jun 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $100 +$10 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 22 $29 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 22 $29 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 21? Jun 22 $29 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 21? Jun 22 $30 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 21? Jun 22 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 20? Jun 21 $14 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 24? BUY Yes 96¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 24? BUY Yes 95¢ $42 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 24? BUY Yes 95¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 24? BUY Yes 95¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 24? BUY Yes 94¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 24? BUY Yes 98¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 24? BUY Yes 97¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 24? BUY Yes 97¢ $58 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 24? BUY Yes 96¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 95¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 94¢ $94 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 24? BUY Yes 96¢ $23 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 24? BUY Yes 96¢ $126 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 24? BUY Yes 95¢ $90 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 24? BUY Yes 93¢ $12 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 24? BUY Yes 94¢ $36 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 24? BUY Yes 93¢ $12 4h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 24? BUY Yes 98¢ $88 4h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 24? BUY Yes 97¢ $19 4h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 24? BUY Yes 96¢ $42 4h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 24? BUY Yes 91¢ $149 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 88¢ $34 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 91¢ $18 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 91¢ $18 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 91¢ $18 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 91¢ $18 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 24? BUY Yes 94¢ $29 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,440.99 · official $1,441.00 (match) · 161 history records