Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:13:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0797…9d32 other 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 592d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$664 (-27%) realized −$675 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate18%13W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$379now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$90
7 days+$265
14 days+$265
30 days+$265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$622
sports 22% +$497
politics 18% −$284
world 11% −$179
economics 3% −$22
crypto 3% −$45
tech 0% −$5
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +238.8% +206.5% 38% 38% +18.1%
≤30d 16 +238.8% +206.5% 38% 38% +18.1%
≤90d 47 +63.3% +47.8% 19% 17% -11.0%
all 72 +25.0% +13.1% 18% 17% -41.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.1% 17% -41.1%
10% +2.3% 17% -46.7%
15% -7.6% 15% -51.9%
20% -16.6% 14% -56.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +74% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$27 · ×2.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$379
Realized−$675
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses13 / 59
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions16
Markets (closed)72 / 88
History coverage592d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 36¢ $50 $74 +$24 (+48%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+25%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $8 +$2 (+50%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+26%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+47%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+42%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$14 +281%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$31 +305%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $113 −$110 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$157 +307%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$176 +344%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $20 +$378 +1845%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, Apr 29 $62 −$54 -88%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, Apr 28 $65 −$56 -87%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 23 $15 −$7 -47%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30? Apr 18 $41 −$29 -70%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 16 $23 −$12 -51%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 16 $6 −$4 -62%
Will Bahrain strike Iran by April 30? Apr 15 $16 −$6 -37%
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by April 30? Apr 15 $10 −$6 -59%
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? Apr 15 $5 −$1 -14%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Apr 15 $21 −$18 -85%
Will France strike Iran by April 30? Apr 15 $6 −$3 -46%
Will Canada strike Iran by April 30? Apr 15 $6 −$3 -56%
Will Oman strike Iran by April 30? Apr 15 $1 $0 -26%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1 $0 -8%
Trump out as President by June 30? Apr 15 $25 −$5 -19%
Will Germany strike Iran by April 30? Apr 15 $6 $0 -7%
Will Iran strike Oman again in March? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bernie and Mamdani's remarks not air? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/Nor Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 11 $5 $0 -9%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1 $0 +5%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Apr 11 $5 +$2 +34%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Apr 11 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 11 $5 +$40 +809%
Elon Musk arrested in 2024? Apr 07 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024? Apr 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024? Apr 06 $13 −$13 -100%
Will "Kaczynski" be in the manifesto? Dec 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during NBC interview? Dec 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Trump say "nuclear" during NBC interview? Dec 09 $3 +$7 +194%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $47 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $0 26h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $40 26h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $19 26h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 26h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 26h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 27h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $36 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $26 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 4d
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $378.62 · official $378.62 (match) · 237 history records