Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:51:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
07 0x0796…29c0 world 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$39 (+0%) realized +$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate41%43W / 61L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$4
14 days−$2
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$27
other 30% +$1
sports 16% +$3
politics 2% +$1
finance 1% +$2
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 25 +0.4% -9.1% 40% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 37 +0.3% -9.3% 35% 0% -9.3%
all 104 +0.4% -9.2% 41% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 1% -9.3%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.17 per $1 lost it wins $3.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses43 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)104 / 106
History coverage458d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 27¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $245 −$5 -2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $78 +$3 +4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $114 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $126 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $131 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $118 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $119 −$1 -1%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $309 +$2 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $248 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $114 $0 -0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $4 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $96 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $113 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $309 +$25 +8%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $113 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $289 +$6 +2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $113 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $107 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $106 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $123 −$2 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $173 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $263 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $97 +$2 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $89 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $87 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 20 $85 −$1 -1%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $87 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 18 $85 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $91 +$1 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $1,013 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $2,841 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $928 +$3 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $1,016 +$1 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $1,006 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $918 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 21 $5 $0 -3%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Aug 21 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 21 $5 $0 +2%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 16 $6 $0 -3%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 15 $9 $0 +1%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 15 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $126 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $126 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $81 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 34h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $28 34h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $30 34h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $23 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $90 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $114 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $126 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $126 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $57 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $57 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $118 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $131 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $131 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $26 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $93 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $118 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $118 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $119 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $23 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $50 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $46 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $19 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $6 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $93 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $0.00 (match) · 366 history records