Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:40:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
07 0x0791…d81f weather 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,313 (+14%) realized +$4,888 · open −$2,575
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate46%38W / 44L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$133
7 days−$133
14 days−$133
30 days−$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% +$5,236
world 35% −$1,733
other 7% −$1,019
weather 2% −$38
sports 2% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +28.1% +15.9% 57% 57% -33.8%
≤30d 7 +28.1% +15.9% 57% 57% -33.8%
≤90d 71 -10.0% -18.6% 49% 41% -11.6%
all 82 -14.3% -22.5% 46% 39% +27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 39% +27.2%
10% -29.9% 22% +15.1%
15% -36.7% 20% +4.0%
20% -42.9% 17% -6.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +41% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$192 vs −$49 · ×3.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.34 per $1 lost it wins $3.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$1,150
Realized+$4,888
Unrealized−$2,575
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses38 / 44
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)82 / 85
History coverage595d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Yes 25¢ 8¢ $3,500 $1,044 −$2,456 (-70%)
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $97 $102 +$5 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $128 $4 −$124 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $50 +$24 +48%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $15 +$45 +291%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 +$13 +123%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $32 −$32 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $151 +$49 +32%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 22 $221 −$215 -98%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? May 20 $224 −$197 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 5? May 05 $3 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on May 4? May 04 $7 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 4? May 04 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on May 4? May 04 $6 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 4? May 04 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on May 4? May 04 $4 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on May 4? May 04 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 4? May 04 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on May 3? May 04 $11 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on May 3? May 03 $8 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on May 4? May 03 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on May 3? May 03 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 31°C on May 3? May 03 $7 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on May 3? May 03 $15 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on May 3? May 03 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on May 3? May 03 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on May 2? May 02 $8 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on May 2? May 02 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on May 3? May 02 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on May 2? May 02 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 2? May 02 $6 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on May 2? May 02 $6 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on May 3? May 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 32°C on May 2? May 01 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $92 −$52 -56%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, Apr 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 Apr 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 16? Apr 16 $11 +$17 +154%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or higher on April 16 Apr 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on April 16? Apr 16 $11 +$18 +154%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 16? Apr 16 $6 +$8 +135%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 16? Apr 16 $5 +$9 +174%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 16? Apr 16 $4 +$10 +265%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 16? Apr 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 15? Apr 15 $29 −$27 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C or higher on Apri Apr 15 $10 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or higher on April 16? Apr 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on April 16? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on April 16? Apr 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on April 16? Apr 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 16? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on April 16? Apr 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $75 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $60 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $23 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 25¢ $15 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $50 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $15 29h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $32 29h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $151 29h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 29h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $28 34d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 4? BUY No 94¢ $5 51d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on May 4? BUY No 92¢ $9 51d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 4? BUY No 90¢ $9 51d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 5? BUY No 84¢ $3 51d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on May 3? BUY No 88¢ $8 52d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on May 4? BUY No 90¢ $5 52d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on May 3? BUY No 92¢ $5 52d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on May 4? BUY No 89¢ $4 52d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on May 3? BUY No 88¢ $4 52d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on May 4? BUY No 90¢ $7 52d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 4? BUY No 82¢ $4 52d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on May 4? BUY No 81¢ $6 52d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on May 2? BUY No 86¢ $4 53d
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 31°C on May 3? BUY No 92¢ $7 53d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on May 2? BUY No 86¢ $6 53d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 2? BUY No 85¢ $6 53d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on May 3? BUY No 86¢ $15 53d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on May 3? BUY No 85¢ $5 53d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on May 3? BUY No 93¢ $10 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,149.71 · official $1,149.71 (match) · 271 history records