Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:57:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

07
0x078e…8b4b
crypto · 398 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$400 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$400 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$400
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses187 / 211
Open positions0
Markets (closed)398 / 398
History coverage309d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 0 History 398 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$48
14 days−$48
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in 2025? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $119K and $120K on August 11 at 5PM ET? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 12? Yes 74¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin above $114K on August 20? Yes 77¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? No 8¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on September 3? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Solana be above $240 on September 13? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on October 16? Up 90¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 2PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $120K on August 18? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112K and $113K on August 28 at 4PM ET? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on September 13? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4300 on August 22? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $109K and $110K on August 31 at 4PM ET? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 8? Up 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Patriot" or "Hero" 4+ times during Fox & Friends appearance on September 12? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on August 15? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on September 15? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Trump's UN speech be longer than 45 minutes? No 86¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $127 −$127 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $101 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $72 +$32 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $51 +$28 +56%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes before 2027? Mar 16 $5 −$4 -71%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Mar 16 $5 −$2 -35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 29? Jan 29 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 28? Jan 29 $40 +$13 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 27? Jan 27 $38 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 26? Jan 26 $33 +$3 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 26? Jan 26 $3 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 25? Jan 26 $34 +$2 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 24? Jan 24 $33 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 22? Jan 23 $32 +$1 +4%
AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? Jan 22 $9 −$5 -54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 22? Jan 22 $26 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 21? Jan 21 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 20? Jan 21 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 18? Jan 19 $24 +$2 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 17? Jan 17 $22 +$2 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 16? Jan 16 $21 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 14? Jan 15 $11 $0 +3%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jan 15 $14 −$4 -29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 13? Jan 13 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 12? Jan 12 $8 +$1 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 10? Jan 12 $8 +$1 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 9? Jan 09 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 8? Jan 08 $10 +$1 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 7? Jan 07 $18 +$1 +7%
Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by Decem Dec 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? Dec 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Decembe Dec 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in 2025? Dec 18 $14 −$11 -78%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Dec 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration in 2025? Dec 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Trump announce run for 3rd term? Dec 18 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23? Dec 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 8? Dec 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Starmer out in 2025? Dec 04 $2 $0 -14%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? Nov 25 $37 −$28 -76%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Nov 25 $2 −$1 -31%
Will Trump say "Ice Cream" in November? Nov 22 $2 $0 +24%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Nov 20 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Trump say "Kennedy" or "Autism" during Saudi Investment Forum on Nov 20 $2 +$1 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 56% −$266
politics 19% −$35
other 11% −$62
world 6% +$2
tech 5% −$17
culture 1% −$19
economics 1% −$2
finance 0% +$1
weather 0% −$1
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 6h
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 88d
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 88d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 29? BUY Yes 98¢ $53 134d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 28? BUY Yes 76¢ $40 136d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 27? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 136d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 27? BUY Yes 96¢ $37 136d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 137d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 26? BUY Yes 92¢ $33 137d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 26? BUY Yes 96¢ $3 137d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 25? BUY Yes 95¢ $34 139d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 24? BUY Yes 98¢ $33 140d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 22? BUY No 96¢ $32 141d
AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 141d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 22? SELL No 100¢ $27 141d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.9% -10.4% 71% 57% -20.7%
≤30d 7 -0.9% -10.4% 71% 57% -20.7%
≤90d 10 -21.3% -28.8% 50% 40% -22.4%
all 398 -10.1% -18.7% 47% 36% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 36% -22.1%
10% -26.5% 24% -29.6%
15% -33.6% 16% -36.4%
20% -40.1% 13% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 926 history records