Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:24:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x078e…3ebd crypto 367 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$14,029 (-14%) realized −$13,441 · open −$588
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate66%246W / 126L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$279per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$200est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$20,004now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$98
7 days−$95
14 days−$94
30 days−$286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$10,512
sports 31% −$3,569
crypto 18% +$100
politics 2% +$603
weather 1% −$80
culture 0% $0
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -25.2% -32.4% 48% 33% -48.0%
≤30d 144 -14.4% -22.6% 67% 28% -26.8%
≤90d 372 -11.7% -20.1% 66% 33% -24.6%
all 372 -11.7% -20.1% 66% 33% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 33% -24.6%
10% -27.8% 17% -31.8%
15% -34.7% 9% -38.4%
20% -41.1% 6% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$164 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$20,004
Realized−$13,441
Unrealized−$588
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses246 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$200
Open positions3
Markets (closed)372 / 367
History coverage72d
Avg bet$279
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 372 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $11,942 $12,860 +$919 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $7,642 $6,176 −$1,466 (-19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1,008 $968 −$40 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on May 23? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 23? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 23? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on May 23? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 94°F or higher on May 23? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on May 23? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on May 23? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-09? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $40 +$4 +11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$94 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +103%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +256%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 −$2 -31%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 −$3 -53%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$1 +24%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $10 +$2 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 30? May 30 $5 +$1 +25%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $5 $0 +7%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $11 +$1 +10%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$3 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on May 29? May 30 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 29? May 29 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 29? May 29 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on May 28? May 28 $5 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? May 28 $1 $0 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 28 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? May 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on May 25? May 25 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 25? May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 24? May 25 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C or higher on May 24? May 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 25? May 25 $19 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 24? May 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 24? May 24 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on May 24? May 24 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 30m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 31m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $181 32m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 36m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 37m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 41m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 41m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1,000 41m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 42m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $22 42m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 42m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 46m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 49m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 52m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 52m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 53m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $49 56m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 56m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 57m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 58m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $50 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $36 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $2,567 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 18h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $40 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $4 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,004.19 · official $20,004.19 (match) · 1530 history records