Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:09:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
07 0x0788…c287 other 206 markets active 2h ago coverage 620d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,864 (-4%) realized −$1,834 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%47W / 146L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$389now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$407
14 days−$1,027
30 days−$2,375
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 68% −$51
sports 12% −$313
other 10% −$231
economics 5% −$2
crypto 5% −$1,247
world 0% −$65
weather 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -15.5% -23.6% 12% 12% -29.1%
≤30d 149 -16.5% -24.5% 17% 17% -50.9%
≤90d 163 -12.9% -21.2% 21% 21% -40.8%
all 193 -9.6% -18.2% 24% 24% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 24% -13.2%
10% -26.0% 22% -21.5%
15% -33.2% 19% -29.1%
20% -39.7% 17% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$30 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

620d coverage
Net worth$389
Realized−$1,834
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses47 / 146
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions13
Markets (closed)193 / 206
History coverage620d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 66¢ 64¢ $66 $64 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $49 $47 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $43 $41 −$2 (-4%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 52¢ 52¢ $42 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $41 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $41 $39 −$2 (-5%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-5%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $36 $32 −$4 (-10%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 41¢ 40¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-8%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Egypt? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-17%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Yes 19¢ 2¢ $12 $1 −$11 (-90%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 97 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $15 $0 -3%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 21 $16 $0 -2%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $27 +$23 +83%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 21 $21 +$39 +186%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 20 $31 −$31 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $31 −$31 -99%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 20 $17 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 20 $16 −$15 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $17 −$17 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $18 +$132 +712%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $17 −$16 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $16 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $16 +$104 +650%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $37 −$36 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $17 +$83 +474%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $16 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $30 −$29 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $7 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $13 +$87 +650%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $17 −$17 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 19 $21 −$1 -3%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $16 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $6 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $16 −$15 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $17 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $42 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $67 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $32 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 6¢ $32 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 19¢ $12 2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 4h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 4h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 4h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 4h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 4h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 4h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 4h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 7h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 7h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 7h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 7h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $389.19 · official $389.19 (match) · 669 history records