Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:33:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
07 0x0785…81c3 sports 501 markets active 0h ago coverage 405d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12,651 (-2%) realized −$12,651 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate77%387W / 114L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,189per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$796est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,153
7 days−$3,235
14 days−$7,023
30 days−$6,834
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$10,330
world 12% −$3,338
other 5% −$2,140
politics 1% +$269
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -12.7% -21.1% 60% 54% -16.6%
≤30d 67 -11.5% -20.0% 64% 55% -18.3%
≤90d 134 -0.9% -10.4% 75% 67% -10.3%
all 501 -1.6% -11.0% 77% 57% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 57% -11.9%
10% -19.5% 27% -20.3%
15% -27.3% 14% -28.0%
20% -34.4% 4% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$1,204) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$227 vs −$906 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

405d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12,651
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses387 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$796
Open positions0
Markets (closed)501 / 501
History coverage405d
Avg bet$1,189
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 501 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $1,909 −$851 -45%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $2,704 −$825 -30%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $1,611 −$1,303 -81%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $704 −$700 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $1,009 +$438 +43%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $705 −$549 -78%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $703 +$120 +17%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $705 +$192 +27%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $704 +$140 +20%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $704 +$184 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2,011 −$1,077 -54%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $703 −$339 -48%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,387 +$239 +17%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,408 +$329 +23%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $706 −$700 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $228 −$228 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $501 +$36 +7%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $822 +$180 +22%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $705 +$205 +29%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $803 +$100 +12%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,009 +$399 +40%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,006 +$228 +23%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,204 +$126 +10%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,305 +$171 +13%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,419 −$230 -16%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $703 +$121 +17%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $703 +$101 +14%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $492 −$257 -52%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,014 −$564 -56%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,807 +$425 +24%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,576 +$444 +28%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,083 −$1,078 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3,180 +$816 +26%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3,000 +$1,105 +37%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,010 −$636 -63%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $4,072 +$214 +5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Jun 12 $2,999 +$361 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2,159 −$1,442 -67%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $472 −$472 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $505 −$505 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $690 −$690 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 4 Winner Jun 12 $707 −$707 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $302 +$109 +36%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,006 −$527 -52%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,009 −$1,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $924 −$715 -77%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $501 +$42 +8%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $502 +$60 +12%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $303 +$126 +42%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $501 +$54 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $14 23m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 45¢ $1,045 30m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 80¢ $1,909 45m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 48¢ $1,879 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 68¢ $2,679 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 68¢ $25 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 15¢ $308 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $1,611 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 80¢ $704 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $1,448 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 69¢ $1,009 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 17¢ $157 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 74¢ $705 9h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $897 27h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 85¢ $703 27h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 78¢ $705 30h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $843 30h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $889 32h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 83¢ $704 32h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 79¢ $704 33h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 39¢ $934 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 82¢ $2,011 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 46¢ $364 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 87¢ $703 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 91¢ $19 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 91¢ $96 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 91¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 91¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1975 history records