Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:04:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0785…ecb4 crypto 452 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 86d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized +$373 · open −$453
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate54%231W / 194L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day35.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$2,192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$66
14 days+$293
30 days−$1,700
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$2,815
crypto 19% −$1,266
other 7% −$365
politics 2% −$93
finance 2% +$10
sports 1% +$71
tech 1% +$147
economics 0% +$57
culture 0% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -29.0% -35.8% 43% 29% -6.3%
≤30d 59 -30.3% -36.9% 44% 27% -25.4%
≤90d 425 -9.7% -18.3% 54% 44% -7.4%
all 425 -9.7% -18.3% 54% 44% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 44% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 32% -16.3%
15% -33.3% 24% -24.4%
20% -39.8% 16% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$62 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$2,192
Realized+$373
Unrealized−$453
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses231 / 194
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions26
Markets (closed)425 / 452
History coverage87d ⚠
Avg bet$177
Trades / day35.7
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 425 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 93¢ 94¢ $473 $474 +$1 (+0%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $283 $278 −$5 (-2%)
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision? Yes 69¢ 90¢ $184 $241 +$57 (+31%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 28¢ 23¢ $251 $207 −$44 (-17%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 84¢ 82¢ $210 $206 −$4 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 75¢ 68¢ $180 $164 −$16 (-9%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 42¢ 36¢ $179 $158 −$22 (-12%)
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? Yes 35¢ 30¢ $159 $132 −$27 (-17%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 77¢ 63¢ $124 $100 −$23 (-19%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $73 $61 −$12 (-17%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $47 $35 −$11 (-24%)
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $48 $32 −$16 (-34%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 48¢ 8¢ $140 $22 −$118 (-84%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+23%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 33¢ 3¢ $183 $18 −$165 (-90%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-18%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 79¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+58%)
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+83%)
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8 $3 −$5 (-61%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 21¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-59%)
Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-77%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 27¢ 2¢ $22 $1 −$21 (-94%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $1 −$6 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $3 −$2 -67%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $302 +$25 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $9 +$7 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $44 +$43 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $12 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 19 $33 +$21 +64%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $50 −$11 -23%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $178 +$47 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $38 −$37 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $1,077 +$69 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $293 +$17 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $160 +$85 +53%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $395 −$234 -59%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $43 +$47 +109%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $246 +$24 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +66%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $519 −$37 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $225 +$15 +6%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $156 +$21 +13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $39 +$2 +5%
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? Jun 12 $520 +$23 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $173 +$154 +89%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $193 +$7 +3%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $33 +$94 +281%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $99 +$1 +1%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $95 +$5 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $386 +$64 +17%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $16 +$6 +38%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 05 $223 −$223 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 05 $296 −$296 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 02 $23 −$23 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 01 $49 +$8 +16%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $695 −$214 -31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $821 +$122 +15%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 31 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Finland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 31 $21 −$21 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of May 11 2026? May 31 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 31 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 31 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Trump Leave China on May 15? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping? May 31 $116 −$116 -100%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 31 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 31 $161 −$161 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of May 11 2026? May 31 $234 −$234 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $110 2h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 15¢ $55 2h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 15¢ $18 2h
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 84¢ $84 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 84¢ $84 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 84¢ $42 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $260 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $81 35h
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 35h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 92¢ $80 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $6 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $10 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $0 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $9 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $86 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $9 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $15 44h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 93¢ $46 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 93¢ $46 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 92¢ $46 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 92¢ $83 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 76¢ $99 2d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,192.12 · official $2,194.03 (match) · 3500 history records