Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:10:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0785…8f61 crypto 385 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (185 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,049 (+9%) realized +$4,049 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%129W / 273L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day185.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,547
sports 0% +$169
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (185 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -17.0% -24.9% 35% 32% -11.4%
≤30d 402 -10.2% -18.7% 32% 30% -8.1%
≤90d 402 -10.2% -18.7% 32% 30% -8.1%
all 402 -10.2% -18.7% 32% 30% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover185.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 30% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 28% -16.9%
15% -33.6% 26% -25.0%
20% -40.1% 23% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$65 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,049
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses129 / 273
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)402 / 385
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$120
Trades / day185.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 402 Trades
no open positions (202 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $124 −$124 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $99 +$13 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $109 +$266 +244%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $76 +$60 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$26 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $94 −$92 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $49 −$48 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $107 +$169 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$78 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $65 −$32 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$39 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $116 −$110 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $135 −$129 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $193 +$85 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $300 −$111 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $299 −$90 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $70 −$67 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $307 −$56 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $53 +$69 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $198 −$31 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $169 +$455 +269%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $44 +$33 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $308 +$58 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $97 +$135 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $51 +$85 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $70 +$33 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $207 −$45 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $463 +$50 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $210 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $204 +$64 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $47 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $4 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records