Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:54:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

07
0x0781…c4ff
other · 736 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$1,716 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$545 · open +$601
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15,563
Realized+$545
Unrealized+$601
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses270 / 301
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions318
Markets (closed)571 / 736
History coverage41d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day77.1
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit53%
Chart Positions 318 History 571 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,641
7 days−$1,761
14 days+$16
30 days+$2,616
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jamie Davis Jr. be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 95¢ 97¢ $380 $387 +$8 (+2%)
Will Lawrence Kellogg advance to the general election for WA-03? No 93¢ 94¢ $372 $378 +$5 (+1%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Neither team to score first? No 87¢ 93¢ $348 $373 +$25 (+7%)
Will Suzzanna V. Tanner advance to the general election for WA-03? No 92¢ 96¢ $350 $367 +$17 (+5%)
Will Latonya Reeves be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05? No 91¢ 90¢ $364 $360 −$4 (-1%)
Will Dathan Jones be the Republican nominee for Senate in Colorado? No 95¢ 99¢ $337 $351 +$13 (+4%)
Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07? No 79¢ 86¢ $315 $346 +$31 (+10%)
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes 78¢ 88¢ $304 $343 +$39 (+13%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 0 Switzerland? No 96¢ 96¢ $338 $336 −$2 (-1%)
Will the Minnesota Lynx make the 2026 WNBA Playoffs? Yes 84¢ 88¢ $307 $318 +$11 (+4%)
Will Josh Weil be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida? No 97¢ 99¢ $291 $299 +$8 (+3%)
Will Oliver Adams Larkin be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23? No 84¢ 96¢ $260 $298 +$37 (+14%)
Will Dale Holness be the Democratic nominee for FL-20? No 86¢ 94¢ $267 $292 +$25 (+9%)
Will James Dees be the Republican nominee for AL-01? No 95¢ 98¢ $271 $280 +$8 (+3%)
Will Sharon Brown advance from the CA-04 primary election? No 99¢ 99¢ $272 $273 +$1 (+0%)
Will Michael McCord be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? No 80¢ 98¢ $220 $272 +$52 (+24%)
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes 41¢ 70¢ $154 $264 +$111 (+72%)
Will Melissa Hernandez advance from the CA-14 primary election? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $223 $233 +$11 (+5%)
Will Adam Crum advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? No 88¢ 94¢ $205 $218 +$13 (+6%)
Will Lisa Carlquist be the Republican nominee for GA-11? No 97¢ 100¢ $192 $197 +$6 (+3%)
Will Rudy Moise be the Democratic nominee for FL-20? No 92¢ 100¢ $173 $187 +$14 (+8%)
Will Nathan Willett be the Republican nominee for MO-06? No 88¢ 84¢ $183 $176 −$8 (-4%)
Will Nicole Williams be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? No 93¢ 99¢ $165 $174 +$9 (+6%)
Will Amie Baca-Oehlert be the Democratic nominee for CO-08? No 99¢ 97¢ $175 $171 −$3 (-2%)
Will Tim Greimel be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10? No 87¢ 77¢ $189 $167 −$22 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jessica Pegula win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 13 $0 $0 +110%
Will Ro Khanna advance from the CA-17 primary? Jun 13 $0 +$3 +1233%
Will Zach Werenski win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy? Jun 13 $0 +$5 +9001%
Will Anthony Jones win Top Chef Season 23? Jun 13 $0 +$5 +4406%
Will Rasmus Dahlin win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy? Jun 13 $0 +$1 +671%
Will "Sean Combs: The Reckoning: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Team Heretics win the 2025 Valorant Esports World Cup Tournament? Jun 13 $158 −$158 -100%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in 2025? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +25%
Will Katherine LaNasa be nominated for Best Actress in a Drama Series Jun 13 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Matthew Stafford win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Jun 13 $0 +$92 +113211%
Will Rose Byrne win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 13 $0 +$24 +6994%
Will "Ricky Gervais: Mortality" win Best Performance in Stand-Up Comed Jun 13 $6 +$1 +23%
Will Jesse Plemons be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awa Jun 13 $1 +$4 +685%
Will Tetairoa McMillan be the 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Ye Jun 13 $16 −$35 -216%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 Jun 13 $5 −$4 -81%
Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25? Jun 13 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Andrónico Rodríguez win the most votes in the first round of the Jun 13 $34 −$36 -104%
Will "Christmas Gameday: Cowboys vs. Commanders" be the #2 global Netf Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-08-15? Jun 13 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Trump sign an NIL executive order by September 1? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "BLXXD & FYAH - Keznamdi" win Best Reggae Album at the 68th annua Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jean Smart win Best Actress in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Aw Jun 13 $357 −$356 -100%
Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will 'Kingdom Come: Deliverance II' win Game of the Year in the 2025 S Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC end in a draw? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Meta’s Q1 headcount be above 78000? Jun 13 $0 −$1 -143%
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 2 awards at the Oscars? Jun 13 $7 −$5 -70%
Will "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery" be the #2 US Netflix mov Jun 13 $34 −$36 -106%
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Award Jun 13 $194 −$194 -100%
Will Let God Sort Em Out (Clipse Pusha T Malice) be nominated for Best Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity in 2025? Jun 13 $17 −$54 -325%
Will Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné win the by-election for the seat of Te Jun 13 $113 −$109 -97%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-04-28? Jun 13 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 American League Championship? Jun 13 $1 +$3 +370%
Will Notre Dame win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Samuel Stevens win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -30%
Will Kate Hudson be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jessica Karlsruher be the Republican Nominee for TX-10? Jun 13 $0 −$1 -447%
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 2026 Critics Choice Awards? Jun 13 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Arizona Cardinals draft Ty Simpson in the 2026 pro football draft Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Rob Ashton win the Canadian NDP Leadership election? Jun 13 $52 −$56 -108%
Will Roberto Occhiuto win Calabria Regional Election? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Ronald Acuña Jr. win MVP at the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will The Secret Agent win Best Motion Picture – Drama at the 83rd Gold Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
MLS: Will Inter Miami beat D.C. United? Jun 13 $188 −$188 -100%
Will Orlando Pride win on 2026-03-29? Jun 13 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Hollow Knight: Silksong win Best Game You Suck At in the 2025 Ste Jun 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker? Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 48% +$821
politics 36% +$3,289
sports 11% +$1,314
world 3% −$421
culture 1% +$124
economics 1% +$157
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eric Jones advance from the CA-04 primary election? BUY Yes 99¢ $13 49m
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Spike Lee attend Game 5 of the NBA Finals? BUY Yes 96¢ $8 1h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya G BUY Yes 45¢ $2 1h
Will Alexander Albon finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra BUY No 96¢ $21 1h
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL No 87¢ $23 2h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2h
Will Robert Lulgjuraj be the Republican Nominee for MI-10? SELL No 92¢ $15 2h
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2h
Will USA be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $19 2h
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY Yes 9¢ $11 2h
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pri SELL No 88¢ $25 3h
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3h
Will Eric Jones advance from the CA-04 primary election? SELL Yes 55¢ $3 3h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 3h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 3h
Will Eric Jones advance from the CA-04 primary election? SELL Yes 99¢ $22 3h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 0 Switzerland? BUY No 96¢ $338 3h
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY Yes 9¢ $2 3h
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY Yes 5¢ $8 3h
Will Eric Jones advance from the CA-04 primary election? BUY Yes 99¢ $28 3h
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pri BUY No 89¢ $18 3h
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY Yes 38¢ $8 4h
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran BUY Yes 23¢ $2 4h
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran BUY Yes 23¢ $4 5h
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pri BUY No 89¢ $7 5h
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra BUY Yes 20¢ $2 6h
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran BUY Yes 21¢ $10 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+38.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 226 +36.4% +23.4% 39% 23% -25.7%
≤30d 481 +72.9% +56.4% 53% 29% -2.7%
≤90d 571 +53.2% +38.6% 47% 26% -9.5%
all 571 +53.2% +38.6% 47% 26% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover77.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +38.6% 26% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here +25.3% 20% -18.2%
15% +13.2% 16% -26.1%
20% +2.1% 14% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,562.62 · official $15,555.44 (match) · 3500 history records