trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 17 | -42.3% | -47.8% | 41% | 41% | -48.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -47.8% | 41% | -48.7% |
| 10% | -52.8% | 29% | -53.6% |
| 15% | -57.3% | 24% | -58.1% |
| 20% | -61.5% | 12% | -62.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | $32 | $32 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential elect | Nov 30 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? | Nov 30 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will a balloon deflate during the 2025 Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade? | Nov 30 | $12 | +$7 | +54% |
| Will Trump say "Thank" or "Thanks" 20+ times at the Turkey Pardon on T | Nov 26 | $2 | +$1 | +72% |
| Will a turkey audibly gobble during the Thanksgiving Turkey Pardon on | Nov 26 | $5 | +$2 | +37% |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? | Nov 21 | $3 | +$1 | +28% |
| Will José Antonio Kast come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chi | Nov 21 | $4 | +$1 | +20% |
| Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? | Nov 16 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| North Korea missile launch by November 15? | Nov 16 | $5 | +$2 | +49% |
| U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown? | Nov 14 | $4 | +$1 | +20% |
| Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Korea CEOs Lun | Oct 28 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on October 3 | Oct 28 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31? | Oct 28 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference? | Oct 28 | $1 | −$1 | -84% |
| Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during October press conference? | Oct 28 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Trump and Xi shake hands for less than 2 seconds on October 30, 2 | Oct 28 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31? | Oct 28 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |