Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:34:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
07 0x0780…b0e9 other 60 markets active 3d ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,645 (+5%) realized +$1,824 · open −$179
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%28W / 30L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$587per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$464now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$600
14 days−$600
30 days−$2,629
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$2,321
sports 16% +$4,226
economics 3% −$477
world 1% −$390
crypto 0% +$324
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -49.7% -54.5% 25% 25% -57.5%
≤90d 41 +0.0% -9.5% 44% 44% -5.2%
all 58 -6.5% -15.4% 48% 41% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 41% -5.5%
10% -23.5% 38% -14.5%
15% -30.9% 36% -22.8%
20% -37.7% 33% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$806) neutral
Persistence
early -12% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$607 vs −$515 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$464
Realized+$1,824
Unrealized−$179
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses28 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions2
Markets (closed)58 / 60
History coverage114d
Avg bet$587
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 1¢ $444 $284 −$159 (-36%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $200 $180 −$20 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $613 −$600 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1,173 −$1,156 -98%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-14? May 20 $1,159 +$1,171 +101%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $2,080 −$2,044 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 14 $2,611 +$757 +29%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $776 −$762 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $626 −$614 -98%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 29 $105 −$100 -95%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Apr 26 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $1,208 −$1,184 -98%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $438 −$429 -98%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Apr 22 $300 +$419 +140%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5) Apr 22 $600 +$338 +56%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $1,159 −$1,142 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? Apr 21 $691 −$678 -98%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-04-20? Apr 21 $1,210 +$922 +76%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $317 −$309 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $310 +$901 +291%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $1,783 −$1,746 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $2,238 +$1,849 +83%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-17? Apr 18 $2,326 +$3,247 +140%
Red Wings vs. Panthers Apr 16 $1,071 +$1,375 +128%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 13 $600 −$590 -98%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $1,159 −$1,159 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 12 $409 +$1,073 +262%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09? Apr 10 $1,489 +$1,135 +76%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Apr 09 $37 −$37 -100%
Madrid: Lina Gjorcheska vs Alina Korneeva Apr 09 $200 +$581 +291%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $400 +$663 +166%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 09 $650 +$401 +62%
Golden Knights vs. Canucks Apr 08 $2,053 +$923 +45%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $806 −$806 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Preli Apr 05 $318 +$296 +93%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $400 −$395 -99%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Pr Mar 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand P Mar 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Saski Baskonia vs. KK Crvena Zvezda Mar 26 $200 +$108 +54%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on March 23? Mar 25 $155 +$324 +209%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-26? Mar 24 $38 −$38 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-03-19? Mar 19 $685 −$685 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Mar 17 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Who will finish higher: Norris or Russell? Mar 15 $80 +$1 +1%
Who will finish higher: Norris or Hamilton? Mar 15 $100 $0 +0%
Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Piastri? Mar 15 $100 $0 +0%
Who will finish higher: Hamilton or Piastri? Mar 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Who will finish higher: Verstappen or Hadjar? Mar 15 $100 +$13 +13%
Who will finish higher: Verstappen or Hamilton? Mar 15 $100 +$40 +40%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Mar 15 $100 +$102 +102%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $46 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY Yes 28¢ $613 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $420 7d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $210 7d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 50¢ $587 22d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 50¢ $587 22d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY No 42¢ $2,080 27d
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-14? BUY No 49¢ $1,159 32d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY No 77¢ $2,611 41d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-04? BUY No 39¢ $776 43d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY No 34¢ $626 45d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 0¢ $105 48d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 33¢ $1,208 52d
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-24? BUY No 27¢ $438 53d
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5) BUY Deportivo Alavés 63¢ $600 55d
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) BUY Deportivo Alavés 41¢ $300 55d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21? BUY No 50¢ $1,159 55d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? BUY No 37¢ $691 55d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? BUY No 21¢ $317 55d
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-04-20? BUY No 56¢ $1,210 57d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY No 25¢ $310 57d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? BUY No 31¢ $1,783 58d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY No 54¢ $2,238 59d
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-17? BUY No 41¢ $2,326 60d
Red Wings vs. Panthers BUY Panthers 44¢ $1,071 62d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 2¢ $100 63d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY No 46¢ $600 63d
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-04-13? BUY No 59¢ $1,159 64d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? BUY No 27¢ $409 66d
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09? BUY No 56¢ $1,489 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $464.39 · official $464.39 (match) · 119 history records