Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:59:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0780…67fb crypto 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$76 (+3%) realized −$8 · open +$84
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate31%24W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$190
7 days−$113
14 days+$56
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$139
other 17% −$22
tech 13% +$116
world 8% −$120
economics 1% +$24
politics 1% +$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +3.5% -6.4% 27% 25% -16.5%
≤30d 76 +22.7% +11.1% 30% 28% -12.2%
≤90d 78 +21.2% +9.6% 31% 27% -13.6%
all 78 +21.2% +9.6% 31% 27% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.6% 27% -13.6%
10% -0.9% 27% -21.8%
15% -10.4% 24% -29.4%
20% -19.2% 24% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +51% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$20 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$84
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses24 / 54
Open positions3
Markets (closed)78 / 81
History coverage36d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 3¢ 9¢ $29 $81 +$52 (+182%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 40¢ 62¢ $40 $62 +$22 (+56%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? No 21¢ 46¢ $8 $17 +$9 (+117%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$47 +495%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $29 −$22 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$18 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $42 −$10 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$12 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$11 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$72 +489%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$93 +627%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$32 +305%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $22 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $96 −$19 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$10 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 15 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$77 +407%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $0 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $57 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $7 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $6 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $34 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.10 · official $161.10 (match) · 486 history records