Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:01:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
07 0x077c…98ab sports 173 markets active 0h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,774 (-10%) realized −$1,774 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%90W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days−$20
14 days−$179
30 days−$179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$1,466
other 9% −$144
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -24.1% -31.4% 48% 48% -11.3%
≤30d 26 -27.0% -34.0% 46% 46% -21.6%
≤90d 75 -20.6% -28.2% 48% 47% -20.6%
all 168 -9.9% -18.5% 54% 52% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 52% -18.0%
10% -26.3% 46% -25.8%
15% -33.4% 39% -33.0%
20% -39.9% 30% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$94 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$1,774
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses90 / 78
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions2
Markets (closed)168 / 173
History coverage125d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Under 70¢ 100¢ $60 $86 +$26 (+43%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Under 52¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $57 +$30 +52%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $44 +$13 +29%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$13 +43%
Gonzalo Plata: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $70 +$60 +85%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $60 +$10 +17%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $8 −$8 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $41 +$27 +64%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $41 −$41 -99%
ITF Bucharest: Diana-Ioana Simionescu vs Daria Yesypchuk Jun 20 $110 +$23 +21%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Türkiye to win the second half? Jun 20 $81 −$80 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 202 Jun 19 $39 +$38 +98%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $67 +$38 +57%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $27 −$27 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $60 −$60 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Switzerland vs. Bo Jun 18 $51 +$62 +122%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $77 +$43 +57%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $66 −$65 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $151 −$150 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $101 +$54 +53%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $63 −$63 -99%
Valencia: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Matteo Berrettini May 14 $46 −$45 -98%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner May 14 $152 −$150 -99%
Bordeaux: Benjamin Bonzi vs Tallon Griekspoor May 14 $165 +$33 +20%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner May 14 $45 −$44 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner May 14 $167 +$43 +26%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 14 $99 −$98 -99%
Zagreb: Yannick Alexandrescou vs August Holmgren May 14 $110 −$110 -99%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 13 $57 −$56 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner May 13 $112 +$75 +67%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 13 $72 +$41 +57%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 13 $50 +$21 +42%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 13 $50 −$49 -98%
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Ostapenko (+1.5) Apr 15 $90 −$90 -99%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Apr 11 $104 −$102 -98%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Luca Van Assche vs Tallon Griekspoor Apr 02 $62 −$61 -98%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Apr 02 $80 −$79 -98%
Credit One Charleston Open: Sara Bejlek vs Belinda Bencic Apr 02 $122 +$21 +17%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Play Apr 02 $212 −$208 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Apr 02 $80 +$132 +165%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Apr 02 $150 +$52 +34%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Apr 02 $49 −$48 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Apr 02 $164 +$35 +21%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs G2 (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Playoffs Mar 30 $424 −$421 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Mar 30 $400 +$24 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 70¢ $60 17m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $26 26m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $87 28m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $57 58m
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $57 59m
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 77¢ $44 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $43 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 78¢ $68 7h
Gonzalo Plata: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $10 7h
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals BUY Yes 57¢ $20 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 7h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $130 7h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $70 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $70 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $60 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $8 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $68 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $41 9h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 63¢ $41 20h
ITF Bucharest: Diana-Ioana Simionescu vs Daria Yesypchuk BUY Daria Yesypchuk 61¢ $50 22h
ITF Bucharest: Diana-Ioana Simionescu vs Daria Yesypchuk SELL Daria Yesypchuk 61¢ $50 22h
ITF Bucharest: Diana-Ioana Simionescu vs Daria Yesypchuk BUY Daria Yesypchuk 70¢ $60 22h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06 BUY 39¢ $20 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 25h
Türkiye to win the second half? BUY Yes 73¢ $81 25h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $105 34h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 202 BUY 50¢ $39 34h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 22¢ $10 34h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $67 34h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $27 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.53 · official $85.53 (match) · 300 history records