Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:08:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x077c…c253 crypto 144 markets active 0h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$131 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate59%83W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$121
7 days+$41
14 days+$41
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$175
sports 19% +$47
other 6% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +1.5% -8.1% 64% 43% +1.4%
≤30d 14 +1.5% -8.1% 64% 43% +1.4%
≤90d 140 -7.0% -15.9% 59% 38% -12.1%
all 140 -7.0% -15.9% 59% 38% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 38% -12.1%
10% -23.9% 28% -20.5%
15% -31.3% 19% -28.2%
20% -38.0% 13% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4.6571674571870005% → late -9.428527102266084% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$16 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$131
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses83 / 57
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions4
Markets (closed)140 / 144
History coverage51d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 28¢ 32¢ $33 $38 +$5 (+14%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 22¢ 16¢ $10 $7 −$2 (-25%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16 +$9 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $43 +$22 +52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $82 +$48 +58%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $31 +$24 +79%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $23 −$1 -5%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $25 +$14 +57%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 09 $13 −$10 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 14 $128 −$120 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 14 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 14 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 14 $8 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 14 $16 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 14 $5 $0 +2%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 09 $52 −$7 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 08 $200 +$18 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 08 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 08 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 08 $6 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 08 $16 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 07 $26 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 07 $37 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 07 $35 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 07 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 07 $69 +$12 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 07 $30 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 07 $83 +$85 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 07 $117 −$112 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 07 $25 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 07 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 07 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 07 $81 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 07 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 07 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 07 $26 −$22 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 07 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 07 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 07 $7 −$6 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 07 $15 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 06 $31 +$8 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 26¢ $29 12m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 23¢ $36 13m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $31 17m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 54¢ $62 19m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 28¢ $15 20m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 20¢ $15 20m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 31¢ $31 21m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 69¢ $16 22m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $10 24m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 59¢ $31 24m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 48¢ $53 25m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 39¢ $16 27m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 37¢ $41 29m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 23¢ $26 31m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 55¢ $63 34m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 32¢ $73 35m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 23¢ $10 35m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 22¢ $20 36m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 28¢ $20 37m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $20 39m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 61¢ $10 41m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $10 42m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 75¢ $20 42m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 73¢ $10 45m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 72¢ $20 46m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 78¢ $10 47m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 85¢ $5 48m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 87¢ $10 49m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 88¢ $5 50m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 89¢ $20 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.40 · official $73.40 (match) · 683 history records