Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:55:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0778…73d1 politics 329 markets active 0h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$892 (+1%) realized +$1,116 · open −$224
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate89%220W / 27L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day34.3pace
Fees−$113est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$10,286now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$420
7 days+$429
14 days+$562
30 days+$893
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% −$208
sports 39% +$592
other 2% +$32
world 2% +$4
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +21.2% +9.7% 82% 36% +13.0%
≤30d 72 -2.6% -11.9% 81% 19% -2.8%
≤90d 247 -3.6% -12.8% 89% 9% -7.8%
all 247 -3.6% -12.8% 89% 9% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 9% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 5% -16.6%
15% -28.8% 2% -24.7%
20% -35.7% 1% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$39 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$10,286
Realized+$1,116
Unrealized−$224
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses220 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$113
Open positions82
Markets (closed)247 / 329
History coverage71d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day34.3
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 82 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $1,811 $1,899 +$88 (+5%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $1,030 $1,063 +$32 (+3%)
Mamdani team sweeps primaries? Yes 92¢ 99¢ $519 $560 +$41 (+8%)
Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? Yes 14¢ 48¢ $153 $507 +$354 (+231%)
Will the Democrats win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026? No 94¢ 95¢ $471 $476 +$5 (+1%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 36¢ 42¢ $403 $470 +$66 (+16%)
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-07 House seat? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $419 $422 +$3 (+1%)
Will the Democrats win the Delaware Senate race in 2026? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $397 $395 −$2 (-1%)
Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $380 $390 +$10 (+3%)
Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island Senate race in 2026? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $326 $328 +$2 (+1%)
Will the Republican Party win the CA-06 House seat? Yes $575 $303 −$272 (-47%)
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-06 House seat? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $259 $264 +$5 (+2%)
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $216 $229 +$12 (+6%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 83¢ 89¢ $194 $208 +$14 (+7%)
Will the Republican Party win the TN-09 House seat? Yes 77¢ 81¢ $162 $171 +$8 (+5%)
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Yes 41¢ 99¢ $64 $156 +$92 (+145%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 51¢ 62¢ $108 $130 +$22 (+21%)
Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? Yes 56¢ 48¢ $140 $121 −$19 (-13%)
Will the Republican Party win the FL-27 House seat? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $113 $110 −$3 (-2%)
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-06 House seat? Yes 94¢ 93¢ $109 $107 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Republicans win the West Virginia Senate race in 2026? Yes 93¢ 96¢ $104 $107 +$3 (+3%)
Will the Republican Party win the AL-01 House seat? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $93 $94 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-01 House seat? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $93 $94 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party win the ME-01 House seat? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $92 $94 +$2 (+2%)
Will the Republican Party win the IL-16 House seat? Yes 84¢ 88¢ $84 $88 +$4 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 24 $664 +$148 +22%
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 24 $452 +$198 +44%
Will David Trone be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 24 $311 −$44 -14%
Will Sam McCown be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? Jun 24 $0 $0 +8%
Will Jay Byars be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? Jun 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 24 $30 +$4 +15%
Will Max Diaz be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? Jun 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima Jun 24 $46 +$115 +248%
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $92 +$8 +9%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $76 +$27 +35%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 17 $191 −$91 -48%
Will Lamont Lavender be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $112 $0 +0%
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $90 +$37 +41%
Will Steve Marshall be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $49 $0 +0%
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele Jun 17 $377 +$28 +7%
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 16 $61 −$59 -96%
Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Jun 16 $0 $0 +34%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $2,423 +$162 +7%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $8 $0 +4%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $173 +$3 +2%
Will Kyle Sweetser be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 11 $783 +$1 +0%
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate Jun 11 $7 +$3 +34%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 11 $68 +$22 +33%
Will Raji Rab advance from the 2026 California Governor primary electi Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will Jimmy Parker advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $28 $0 +0%
Will Zoltan Istvan advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 10 $28 $0 +0%
Will Kyle Langford advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ryan Tillman advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $9 $0 +1%
Will Butch Ware advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele Jun 10 $88 +$2 +2%
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prim Jun 10 $8 −$6 -83%
Will Aaron Ford win the 2026 Nevada Governor Democratic primary electi Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will Oliver Ma advance from the California Lieutenant Governor Primary Jun 10 $138 +$1 +1%
Will Ebie Lynch advance from the California Lieutenant Governor Primar Jun 10 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Michael Tubbs advance from the California Lieutenant Governor Pri Jun 10 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Todd Lombardo advance from the CA-37 primary election? Jun 10 $30 +$2 +8%
Will Joe Kerr advance from the CA-40 primary election? Jun 10 $48 +$1 +1%
Will Ken Calvert advance from the CA-40 primary election? Jun 10 $37 +$1 +3%
Will Paul LePage be the Republican Nominee for ME-02? Jun 10 $212 +$6 +3%
Will Nithya Raman & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2 Jun 09 $45 +$1 +3%
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary Jun 07 $19 −$18 -96%
MLP St. Louis: SoCal Hard Eights vs Las Vegas Night Owls Jun 05 $5 $0 +2%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 05 $258 −$256 -99%
Will Mike Schaefer advance from the CA-48 primary election? Jun 04 $7 $0 +2%
Will Josh Harder advance from the CA-09 primary election? Jun 04 $17 +$2 +11%
Will Hilda Solis advance from the CA-38 primary election? Jun 04 $19 +$2 +10%
Will Brad Sherman advance from the CA-32 primary election? Jun 04 $17 +$2 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 9m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $6 9m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 10m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $0 10m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $0 13m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $4 22m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $0 22m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 29m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 30m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 33m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 42m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 42m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 44m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 44m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 44m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 44m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 45m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 45m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 46m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 46m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 47m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 47m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 47m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 49m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 53m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 53m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 53m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 53m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 55m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 55m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,286.23 · official $10,285.34 (match) · 2729 history records