Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
07 0x0778…2219 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+5%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$52
sports 14% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -3.9% -13.1% 50% 50% +22.6%
≤30d 4 -3.9% -13.1% 50% 50% +22.6%
≤90d 4 -3.9% -13.1% 50% 50% +22.6%
all 4 -3.9% -13.1% 50% 50% +22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 50% +22.6%
10% -21.4% 50% +10.9%
15% -29.0% 50% +0.1%
20% -36.0% 50% -9.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +36% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$7 · ×3.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.55 per $1 lost it wins $3.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $65 +$33 +51%
France to win the second half? Jun 16 $25 +$19 +76%
France vs. Senegal: Second half draw? Jun 16 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $97 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 2h
France vs. Senegal: Second half draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 12h
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 56¢ $13 12h
France vs. Senegal: Second half draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 12h
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 56¢ $13 12h
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 14h
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records