Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:08:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0775…79df world 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$18 (-3%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate42%11W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% −$6
other 10% −$2
politics 9% $0
sports 5% −$11
tech 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -7.3% -16.1% 0% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 14 -2.0% -11.3% 21% 7% -11.4%
≤90d 14 -2.0% -11.3% 21% 7% -11.4%
all 26 -4.3% -13.5% 42% 4% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 4% -12.6%
10% -21.7% 4% -20.9%
15% -29.3% 0% -28.6%
20% -36.2% 0% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage492d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $6 −$2 -31%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 24 $6 $0 -6%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $43 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 04 $44 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $2 $0 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $6 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $51 −$8 -15%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $6 +$1 +23%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $94 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $18 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Dec 11 $2 $0 +4%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 22 $2 $0 +1%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 26 $16 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture Yunakivka before June? May 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will 'My Hero Academia: You’re Next' win Crunchyroll's Film of the Yea May 26 $15 $0 +2%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 23 $16 $0 +3%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A May 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? May 08 $16 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $16 $0 +0%
Bryant vs. Vermont Mar 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $37 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $37 6h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No $4 23h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 13¢ $6 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 32h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 34h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $26 38h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $26 38h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $43 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $43 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $0 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $1 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $0 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $2 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $42 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $42 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $43 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $43 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $6 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 40¢ $6 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $43 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $4 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.72 · official $0.00 (match) · 69 history records