Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:04:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0773…77b9 other 267 markets active 0h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$110 (-0%) realized −$110 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 254L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$15
14 days−$24
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$29
sports 31% −$19
politics 8% −$6
economics 6% −$5
culture 6% −$4
crypto 4% −$3
world 3% −$56
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 90 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 195 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 267 -0.3% -9.8% 5% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$110
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 254
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)267 / 267
History coverage133d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 267 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $350 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $177 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $124 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $332 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $319 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $98 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $364 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $29 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 16 $196 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $243 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $117 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $181 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $212 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $173 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $167 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $461 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $207 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 12 $186 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $103 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $242 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $237 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $170 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $157 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $165 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $303 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $248 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $324 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $106 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $128 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $32 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 08 $93 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $165 −$1 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $133 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $236 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $454 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $187 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $28 6m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $28 1h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $28 3h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $28 4h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $28 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $28 9h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $28 9h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $28 11h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $28 12h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 13h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $7 16h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $7 18h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $28 19h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 21h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $28 21h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $29 23h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $29 24h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $29 26h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $29 28h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $29 30h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $29 30h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $29 31h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $29 34h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $29 35h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $29 40h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $29 41h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $29 43h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $29 45h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $29 46h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $29 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1472 history records