Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:35:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0772…df37 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$69 (+36%) realized +$68 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%13W / 23L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$7
sports 39% +$51
crypto 5% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -12.8% -21.1% 36% 33% +25.1%
≤30d 36 -12.8% -21.1% 36% 33% +25.1%
≤90d 36 -12.8% -21.1% 36% 33% +25.1%
all 36 -12.8% -21.1% 36% 33% +25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 33% +25.1%
10% -28.7% 31% +13.1%
15% -35.6% 31% +2.2%
20% -41.9% 28% -7.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +38% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×4.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.37 per $1 lost it wins $2.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$68
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses13 / 23
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)36 / 40
History coverage7d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 68¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+5%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$14 +47%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 +$5 +65%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 +$4 +126%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $8 −$2 -29%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 $0 -13%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $1 $0 -11%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$4 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $11 +$9 +81%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 -47%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$2 -42%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +132%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $25 +$52 +206%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -18%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 $0 -21%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 +$11 +114%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$4 +250%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +80%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +145%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 31m
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 33m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 34m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $13 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 15h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 18h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 35¢ $1 18h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 18h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 18h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 18h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 25h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 34h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $1 43h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $1 43h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 46¢ $5 43h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 43h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 43h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 43h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 43h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.85 · official $26.85 (match) · 84 history records