Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:05:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

07 0x076a…3117 other 10 markets active 3d ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$1,067 (-19%) realized −$1,067 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip

Net edge-25%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate60%6W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$575per market

Trades / day6.4pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit30%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-19.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	-10.4%	-19.0%	60%	50%	-26.8%
≤30d	10	-10.4%	-19.0%	60%	50%	-26.8%
≤90d	10	-10.4%	-19.0%	60%	50%	-26.8%
all	10	-10.4%	-19.0%	60%	50%	-26.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.4 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-19.0%	50%	-26.8%
10%	-26.7%	50%	-33.8%
15%	-33.8%	50%	-40.2%
20%	-40.3%	20%	-46.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 45% · top 2 75% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

17% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$246 vs −$643 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.57 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$1,067

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses6 / 4

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions0

Markets (closed)10 / 10

History coverage2d

Avg bet$575

Trades / day6.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 10 Trades

no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$1,213	+$660	+54%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$1,001	−$971	-97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 13	$810	−$800	-99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$607	−$600	-99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$406	+$445	+109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$203	−$200	-99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5	Jun 12	$101	+$42	+42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5	Jun 11	$701	+$44	+6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5	Jun 11	$504	+$199	+40%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$202	+$84	+41%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,873	2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	64¢	$404	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	3¢	$30	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	96¢	$1,001	2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	58¢	$810	2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	64¢	$809	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$607	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$406	3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	54¢	$203	4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	70¢	$101	4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	100¢	$746	4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$703	4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	100¢	$285	4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	94¢	$701	4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	71¢	$504	5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	70¢	$202	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records