Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:42:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0769…3690 sports 37 markets active 1d ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$22,707 (-9%) realized −$22,707 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate67%24W / 12L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,583per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$2,169est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,508
7 days−$3,213
14 days−$34,875
30 days−$25,890
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$12,877
other 45% −$13,414
crypto 6% +$3,686
world 3% −$3,285
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.2% -6.6% 67% 67% -13.3%
≤30d 36 +10.6% +0.1% 67% 53% -19.2%
≤90d 36 +10.6% +0.1% 67% 53% -19.2%
all 36 +10.6% +0.1% 67% 53% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.1% 53% -19.2%
10% ← realistic here -9.5% 42% -26.9%
15% -18.2% 22% -34.0%
20% -26.2% 19% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$10,289) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,703 vs −$5,564 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22,707
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses24 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$2,169
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage14d
Avg bet$6,583
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $9,000 +$1,508 +17%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $22,546 −$13,674 -61%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $12,054 +$10,493 +87%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10,289 +$1,749 +17%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10,221 −$6,975 -68%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $13,536 +$3,686 +27%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $18,441 −$4,896 -26%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $16,154 +$2,285 +14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15,790 +$343 +2%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $979 +$251 +26%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1,396 +$358 +26%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,138 +$258 +23%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,040 +$99 +10%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $775 +$264 +34%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $4,528 −$3,757 -83%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3,828 +$703 +18%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $93 −$90 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $3,044 +$781 +26%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $250 +$249 +100%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $1,501 +$43 +3%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $510 −$500 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6,619 −$3,285 -50%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $510 +$1,013 +198%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5,310 +$312 +6%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $514 +$1,109 +216%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $2,013 −$747 -37%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,048 −$2,048 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5,098 −$4,482 -88%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $8,632 +$2,808 +32%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $8,247 +$423 +5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5,083 +$3,153 +62%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8,456 −$3,392 -40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $24,699 −$22,917 -93%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $13,474 +$5,336 +40%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $4,974 +$3,641 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 97¢ $10,508 34h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $9,000 34h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 20¢ $40 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 20¢ $30 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 20¢ $2 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 20¢ $46 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 20¢ $37 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 20¢ $390 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 20¢ $183 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 20¢ $714 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 20¢ $1 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 20¢ $1 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 20¢ $50 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 20¢ $2 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 20¢ $1 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 20¢ $1 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 20¢ $30 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 20¢ $44 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 20¢ $1,086 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 20¢ $1 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 20¢ $316 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 20¢ $2,263 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 20¢ $248 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 20¢ $1,280 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 20¢ $941 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 20¢ $268 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 20¢ $1 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 20¢ $1 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 20¢ $23 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 20¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 214 history records