trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 85¢ | $400,000 | $678,800 | +$278,800 (+70%) |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99¢ | 99¢ | $624,044 | $625,611 | +$1,567 (+0%) |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $476,786 | $478,130 | +$1,344 (+0%) |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 15¢ | $400,000 | $121,200 | −$278,800 (-70%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | Jun 06 | $120,510 | +$121 | +0% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 04 | $1,689,137 | +$5,437 | +0% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | Jun 02 | $860,747 | +$1,725 | +0% |
| US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? | Jun 02 | $67,746 | +$894 | +1% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? | Jun 01 | $6,051 | +$6 | +0% |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 23 | $1,888,797 | +$1,891 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +0.4% | -9.2% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤90d | 6 | +0.4% | -9.2% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| all | 6 | +0.4% | -9.2% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -9.2% | 0% | -9.3% |
| 10% | -17.9% | 0% | -18.0% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -25.8% | 0% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -33.1% | 0% | -33.2% |