Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:24:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
07 0x0769…c7ec other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$356 (+19%) realized +$356 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$226
7 days+$61
14 days+$61
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$212
other 39% +$137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +21.5% +9.9% 57% 50% -3.0%
≤30d 16 +6.3% -3.8% 50% 44% -5.2%
≤90d 17 +19.6% +8.2% 53% 47% +24.2%
all 26 +9.5% -0.9% 46% 42% +8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 42% +8.2%
10% -10.4% 42% -2.2%
15% -19.1% 38% -11.6%
20% -27.0% 31% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$45 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$356
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage120d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 26 $121 +$52 +43%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $46 +$52 +114%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Paraguay O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 26 $29 +$1 +5%
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 25 $85 +$48 +57%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $18 +$72 +414%
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals Jun 24 $69 +$50 +73%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $99 −$97 -98%
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals Jun 24 $111 +$48 +43%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $38 +$57 +152%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $39 −$38 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 22 $59 −$58 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $30 −$29 -98%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 22 $85 −$85 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $19 −$19 -98%
Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire May 30 $1 $0 -97%
76ers vs. Hornets Mar 29 $142 +$331 +233%
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 235.5 Mar 27 $189 −$8 -4%
Tristan da Silva: Points O/U 8.5 Mar 02 $69 +$106 +154%
Keyonte George: Rebounds O/U 2.5 Mar 01 $153 −$63 -41%
Jamal Murray: Points O/U 22.5 Feb 28 $43 +$92 +212%
Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Feb 27 $48 −$48 -100%
Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 7.5 Feb 27 $64 −$64 -100%
James Harden: Assists O/U 7.5 Feb 27 $75 −$75 -100%
Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs BOSS - Map 2 Winner Feb 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs Ground Zero (BO3) - CCT Oceania S Feb 27 $193 +$68 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Michael Olise: 1+ assists SELL No 100¢ $173 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL No 100¢ $98 1h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY No 69¢ $121 13h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY No 46¢ $46 13h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Paraguay O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 95¢ $29 18h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $18 29h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY No 63¢ $85 30h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Scotland 50¢ $99 2d
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals BUY No 57¢ $69 2d
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals BUY No 69¢ $111 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 39¢ $38 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 42¢ $39 3d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 50¢ $59 4d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY No 34¢ $30 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 49¢ $14 4d
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY No 62¢ $85 4d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $19 27d
Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire $1 27d
76ers vs. Hornets SELL 76ers 100¢ $473 89d
76ers vs. Hornets BUY 76ers 30¢ $142 91d
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 235.5 SELL Under 41¢ $181 91d
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 235.5 BUY Under 43¢ $189 91d
Tristan da Silva: Points O/U 8.5 SELL Yes 100¢ $175 116d
Tristan da Silva: Points O/U 8.5 BUY Yes 40¢ $7 117d
Tristan da Silva: Points O/U 8.5 BUY Yes 40¢ $8 117d
Tristan da Silva: Points O/U 8.5 BUY Yes 40¢ $12 117d
Tristan da Silva: Points O/U 8.5 BUY Yes 40¢ $28 117d
Tristan da Silva: Points O/U 8.5 BUY Yes 37¢ $14 117d
Keyonte George: Rebounds O/U 2.5 BUY Yes 44¢ $25 117d
Keyonte George: Rebounds O/U 2.5 BUY Yes 47¢ $25 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records