Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:46:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0764…90a2 crypto 493 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$28 (-2%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate53%262W / 231L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day42.6pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$7
14 days−$37
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$56
other 7% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -15.6% -23.6% 47% 38% -14.0%
≤30d 493 -7.3% -16.2% 53% 39% -13.8%
≤90d 493 -7.3% -16.2% 53% 39% -13.8%
all 493 -7.3% -16.2% 53% 39% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 39% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 30% -22.0%
15% -31.5% 25% -29.6%
20% -38.2% 23% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses262 / 231
Open positions0
Markets (closed)493 / 493
History coverage23d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day42.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 493 Trades
no open positions (84 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $0 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1050 history records