Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:18:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
07 0x0760…0201 crypto 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%80W / 1L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$9
other 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
politics 0% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 29 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 81 -0.5% -10.0% 99% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.01 per $1 lost it wins $6.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses80 / 1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)81 / 86
History coverage234d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,000 on June 12? Jun 15 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? Jun 11 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 10 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 06 $113 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 04 $5 $0 +6%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $216 in May? Jun 04 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? Jun 04 $103 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in April? May 02 $2 $0 +2%
Iran leadership change by April 30? May 02 $2 $0 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by April 30, 2026? May 02 $3 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 02 $4 $0 +1%
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? May 02 $4 $0 +2%
Will Meta (META) close above $440 end of April? May 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? May 02 $5 $0 +3%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in April? May 02 $7 $0 +2%
Will gas hit (Low) $3.95 by April 30? May 02 $7 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? May 02 $81 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 27? Apr 29 $77 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 7? Apr 10 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 3? Apr 04 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 2? Apr 03 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 28? Mar 28 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 18? Mar 20 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 14? Mar 15 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 9? Mar 13 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 1? Mar 09 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 27? Mar 01 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 20? Feb 22 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 17? Feb 18 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 15? Feb 16 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on February 13? Feb 14 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 11? Feb 12 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 10? Feb 11 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on February 8? Feb 09 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 6? Feb 06 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 2? Feb 05 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 1? Feb 02 $111 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January? Feb 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $100,000 on January 30? Jan 31 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 28? Jan 28 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,600 and $3,700 on January 26? Jan 27 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,700 on January 23? Jan 24 $110 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $6 35h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $4 35h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $5 35h
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $118 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $111 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $115 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $113 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 26d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 94¢ $5 34d
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $216 in May? BUY No 99¢ $6 39d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 97¢ $5 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? BUY No 100¢ $81 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $77 50d
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $4 58d
Will Meta (META) close above $440 end of April? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 58d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $4 58d
Iran leadership change by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $2 58d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $94 63d
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by April 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $3 68d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $95 71d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in April? BUY No 98¢ $7 73d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $5 73d
Will XRP reach $2.00 in April? BUY No 98¢ $2 73d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? BUY No 99¢ $4 73d
Will gas hit (Low) $3.95 by April 30? BUY No 93¢ $7 73d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $119 74d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $116 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $115 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 28? BUY No 100¢ $122 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.40 · official $119.40 (match) · 177 history records