Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:11:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x075e…8a36 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$22 (-8%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -22.5% -29.9% 33% 33% -18.9%
≤30d 12 -22.5% -29.9% 33% 33% -18.9%
≤90d 12 -22.5% -29.9% 33% 33% -18.9%
all 12 -22.5% -29.9% 33% 33% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.9% 33% -18.9%
10% -36.6% 33% -26.6%
15% -42.7% 33% -33.7%
20% -48.3% 33% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$14 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage5d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $72 −$4 -6%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $41 +$32 +76%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $14 +$17 +124%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $13 +$19 +150%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $22 +$19 +86%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 46¢ $23 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 52¢ $44 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ $9 22h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 56¢ $41 22h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $18 23h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 44¢ $19 23h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 36¢ $6 2d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 54¢ $34 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 44¢ $14 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 40¢ $5 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 53¢ $22 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 39¢ $8 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 43¢ $11 4d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 48¢ $14 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $47 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 48¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records