Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0758…9532 sports 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,806 (-14%) realized −$3,511 · open −$295
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%34W / 56L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$304per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$455est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$575
7 days+$1,074
14 days−$2,328
30 days−$4,011
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$3,710
world 2% −$560
crypto 0% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +19.0% +7.7% 52% 48% -2.3%
≤30d 90 -15.8% -23.8% 38% 34% -23.0%
≤90d 90 -15.8% -23.8% 38% 34% -23.0%
all 90 -15.8% -23.8% 38% 34% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 34% -23.0%
10% -31.1% 34% -30.3%
15% -37.8% 30% -37.1%
20% -43.9% 29% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -53% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$329 vs −$271 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$3,511
Unrealized−$295
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses34 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$455
Open positions1
Markets (closed)90 / 91
History coverage27d
Avg bet$304
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Game Master 36¢ 6¢ $360 $65 −$295 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $279 +$305 +109%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $35 +$60 +172%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $570 −$560 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $214 +$450 +210%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $385 +$320 +83%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $255 −$250 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $239 +$235 +98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $204 −$199 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $280 +$408 +146%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $296 −$238 -80%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $265 −$260 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $385 +$293 +76%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $469 −$460 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $203 +$222 +109%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $138 −$136 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $139 −$136 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $493 +$135 +27%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $328 −$130 -40%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $385 +$238 +62%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $340 +$148 +43%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $103 +$524 +511%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $139 +$451 +325%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $407 −$187 -46%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $407 +$7 +2%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $252 +$497 +197%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $355 −$350 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $658 −$650 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $725 +$197 +27%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $151 +$193 +128%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $219 −$216 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $362 +$105 +29%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $122 −$120 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $303 +$15 +5%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $491 +$605 +123%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $574 −$566 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $306 +$694 +226%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $249 +$321 +129%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $203 +$60 +30%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 10 $405 +$296 +73%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $46 −$45 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $366 −$362 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $241 −$237 -98%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 W Jun 10 $202 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $205 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $204 −$200 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $316 −$310 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $294 −$288 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 36¢ $367 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 47¢ $279 16h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $35 28h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $570 28h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 32¢ $214 36h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 54¢ $385 38h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 38¢ $255 2d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 26¢ $180 2d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 28¢ $24 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 44¢ $24 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 50¢ $214 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 40¢ $280 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Top Esports 7¢ $58 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 34¢ $265 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $678 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 34¢ $296 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 56¢ $385 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 37¢ $469 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 47¢ $203 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 41¢ $138 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 12¢ $103 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 27¢ $139 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $493 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE 31¢ $197 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 50¢ $328 3d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $623 3d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 61¢ $385 3d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 18¢ $102 3d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $487 3d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 69¢ $340 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.56 · official $64.56 (match) · 137 history records