Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:00:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0758…3fa6 crypto 192 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$729 (-10%) realized −$876 · open +$147
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate67%128W / 63L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$654now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,695
7 days−$1,942
14 days−$1,954
30 days−$1,954
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$1,103
finance 29% −$507
crypto 20% −$79
other 18% −$116
economics 0% −$9
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -6.6% -15.5% 63% 22% -38.0%
≤30d 189 -7.8% -16.5% 68% 26% -36.1%
≤90d 191 -8.1% -16.9% 67% 26% -36.1%
all 191 -8.1% -16.9% 67% 26% -36.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 26% -36.1%
10% -24.8% 9% -42.2%
15% -32.1% 4% -47.8%
20% -38.8% 3% -52.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$36 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$654
Realized−$876
Unrealized+$147
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses128 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)191 / 192
History coverage55d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? Up 62¢ 80¢ $507 $654 +$147 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,107 −$1,104 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,105 +$17 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1,027 +$73 +7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 17 $727 −$727 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $39 −$30 -77%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $599 +$67 +11%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $104 +$9 +8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 19? Jun 13 $7 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 13 $13 $0 -1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $9 $0 -1%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 -1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 -1%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $9 $0 -2%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Jun 13 $9 $0 -3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 $0 -2%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $7 $0 -3%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $8 $0 -2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $8 $0 -5%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $8 $0 -2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $9 $0 -4%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $9 $0 -6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $9 $0 -2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $9 $0 -5%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $9 $0 -3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $9 $0 -1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $9 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $9 $0 +3%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $70 −$70 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$3 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 92¢ $1,107 57m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $1,121 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,105 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $4 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $858 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $10 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $154 4h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 62¢ $3 5h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 62¢ $7 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 62¢ $3 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 62¢ $501 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 46¢ $105 21h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 46¢ $28 21h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 45¢ $593 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $30 41h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 90¢ $599 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 92¢ $104 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 3d
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 19? SELL Yes 89¢ $7 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $8 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $9 3d
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? SELL Yes 94¢ $9 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 94¢ $9 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 96¢ $10 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 92¢ $9 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 90¢ $9 3d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL Yes 88¢ $9 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 81¢ $8 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 91¢ $7 3d
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 19? BUY Yes 88¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $653.98 · official $609.02 · 482 history records