Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:22:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
07 0x0756…38c9 sports 242 markets active 1h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$218 (+2%) realized +$217 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%101W / 140L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$152
7 days−$52
14 days−$52
30 days−$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$194
sports 47% +$134
crypto 1% +$19
world 0% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +73.8% +57.2% 50% 50% -16.3%
≤30d 30 +29.3% +16.9% 43% 43% -20.2%
≤90d 86 +0.8% -8.8% 41% 41% -23.2%
all 241 +11.5% +0.9% 42% 42% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.9% 42% -6.8%
10% -8.8% 42% -15.7%
15% -17.6% 42% -23.8%
20% -25.7% 41% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$45 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$217
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses101 / 140
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)241 / 242
History coverage228d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 241 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 47¢ 48¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 105 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $39 +$28 +70%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $48 −$48 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $49 +$49 +101%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Wil Jun 17 $10 +$44 +430%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina Jun 17 $10 +$80 +780%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$9 +59%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $53 −$52 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +344%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $91 −$90 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 −$3 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $99 −$98 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $85 −$84 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $84 +$95 +114%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $46 +$38 +83%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $46 −$45 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 03 $35 −$35 -99%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 02 $10 +$15 +152%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Serbia win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $20 −$20 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $213 +$165 +78%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $212 −$209 -98%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 24 $10 +$10 +97%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $14 −$14 -98%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Thomas Faurel May 21 $25 −$25 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) May 21 $19 +$36 +188%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 May 20 $11 +$9 +83%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 May 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5) May 17 $23 −$22 -98%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 17 $24 −$1 -5%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $26 +$17 +64%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 10 $33 −$33 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $44 −$43 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $15 +$22 +146%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $15 +$15 +101%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $64 −$49 -77%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $19 −$19 -98%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $32 −$31 -98%
Aston Villa FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5 Apr 17 $29 +$22 +76%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $34 −$33 -99%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5 Apr 16 $20 +$25 +123%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Apr 15 $52 −$26 -51%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Apr 15 $50 −$36 -72%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $39 +$63 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 47¢ $34 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 10h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $39 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $48 10h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $49 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Wil BUY 18¢ $10 33h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina BUY 11¢ $10 33h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 47h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 46¢ $22 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $30 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $30 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $61 2d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 36¢ $4 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $99 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $85 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $179 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $84 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $46 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $46 6d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 58¢ $35 14d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $26 15d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 49¢ $10 15d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 39¢ $10 16d
Will Serbia win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 17d
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 17d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 55¢ $152 18d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 44¢ $212 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.05 · official $33.35 (match) · 399 history records