Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:50:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0751…60ef other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$138 (-26%) realized −$138 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$305now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$15
other 33% −$124
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-51.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -46.5% -51.6% 0% 0% -62.8%
≤90d 5 -46.5% -51.6% 0% 0% -62.8%
all 5 -46.5% -51.6% 0% 0% -62.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.6% 0% -62.8%
10% -56.3% 0% -66.4%
15% -60.5% 0% -69.6%
20% -64.4% 0% -72.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -59% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$35 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$305
Realized−$138
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage13d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $305 $305 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $54 −$15 -27%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $48 −$48 -100%
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel? Jun 11 $52 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $305.12 · official $305.12 (match) · 19 history records