Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:05:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0750…90f5 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized −$1 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate51%18W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$2
other 26% $0
sports 8% $0
politics 7% $0
finance 7% $0
tech 4% −$1
crypto 4% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 10 +0.1% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 10 +0.1% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.5%
all 35 +0.2% -9.3% 51% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses18 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage465d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 71¢ 74¢ $47 $49 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $47 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $39 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $85 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 01 $57 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $34 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $47 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $26 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $47 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $25 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Dec 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 335–349 times May 30–June 6? Jun 05 $13 $0 -2%
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft buy TikTok? Jun 04 $13 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? Jun 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 03 $12 −$1 -5%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 45% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 02 $3 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win less than 2% of the vote in the South Korea elec Jun 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton be named in Epstein files? May 31 $14 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down in May? May 30 $13 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? May 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 French Open? May 29 $2 $0 +4%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? May 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec May 28 $12 $0 +4%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? May 26 $16 −$1 -7%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Apr 05 $16 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 71¢ $47 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $47 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $47 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $4 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $35 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $39 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $39 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $34 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $5 16d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $11 17d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $11 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $26 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $10 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $34 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $46 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $47 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $26 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $16 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 19d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $46 20d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $46 20d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $47 20d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $25 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.84 · official $48.84 (match) · 107 history records