Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:04:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x074f…2ff6 world 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate28%13W / 33L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$291per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$13
14 days+$7
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$12
other 38% +$4
sports 4% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.3% -11.6% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 36 -0.9% -10.3% 31% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 42 -5.5% -14.5% 31% 0% -9.3%
all 46 -5.0% -14.0% 28% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 0% -9.4%
10% -22.3% 0% -18.0%
15% -29.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -36.7% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses13 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage125d
Avg bet$291
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $312 −$2 -1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $39 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $11 −$1 -12%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $158 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $175 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $165 −$7 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $161 −$3 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $168 −$1 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $98 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $432 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $365 +$22 +6%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $7 −$1 -15%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $171 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $169 +$2 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $4 $0 -3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $166 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $957 −$1 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $167 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $245 −$5 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $271 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $177 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $4 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $206 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $155 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $170 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $284 +$11 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $967 +$2 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $165 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $109 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 26 $47 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $161 +$2 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $39 −$7 -19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $139 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $148 −$2 -1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $70 +$4 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $29 −$1 -4%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $955 +$1 +0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Feb 19 $4,324 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $256 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 19 $229 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $86 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $159 0m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $71 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $87 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $39 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $3 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $0 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $4 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $70 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $89 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $158 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $175 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $175 23h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $49 29h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $109 29h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $52 32h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $113 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $5 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $7 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $19 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $19 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $37 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $99 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $85 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $18 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $36 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $131 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 184 history records