Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:40:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x074e…e877 other 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 649d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$193 (-9%) realized −$191 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate59%46W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$5
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$9
sports 21% −$29
crypto 13% −$15
world 8% +$6
politics 8% −$166
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-41.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -11.2% -19.7% 75% 0% -11.6%
≤30d 51 -6.8% -15.6% 84% 16% -11.2%
≤90d 54 -6.3% -15.2% 85% 15% -10.9%
all 78 -35.1% -41.3% 59% 10% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.3% 10% -18.3%
10% -46.9% 1% -26.1%
15% -52.1% 0% -33.2%
20% -56.8% 0% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -66% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

649d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$191
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses46 / 32
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)78 / 82
History coverage649d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Aurora Gaming 69¢ 68¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 80¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+6%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 76¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $30 +$2 +5%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $13 −$7 -53%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $60 +$2 +3%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $60 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 Nigeria? Jun 11 $15 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 Nigeria? Jun 11 $15 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 3 Nigeria? Jun 11 $15 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $15 +$1 +7%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $20 +$2 +11%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $15 +$5 +35%
Exact Score: Iceland 2 - 1 Spain? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Poland? Jun 10 $45 $0 +0%
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 09 $102 +$14 +13%
CB Murcia vs. Barcelona Jun 08 $20 +$1 +5%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-06? Jun 08 $36 +$1 +2%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 06 $61 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Nicaragua? Jun 06 $13 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 2 Nicaragua? Jun 06 $48 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Hungary 3 - 2 Finland? Jun 05 $5 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Hungary 3 - 1 Finland? Jun 05 $25 +$2 +6%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $24 +$5 +19%
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $20 +$2 +12%
Exact Score: Singapore 2 - 1 China PR? Jun 05 $30 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Cambodia 3 - 2 Bhutan? Jun 05 $50 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Albania 1 - 2 Israel? Jun 04 $20 +$1 +7%
Exact Score: Albania 0 - 3 Israel? Jun 04 $29 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Georgia 3 - 1 Romania? Jun 03 $45 +$2 +4%
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $20 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Uzbekistan? Jun 02 $22 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 02 $22 +$1 +5%
Germany vs. Finland: O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Ethan Daley die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $25 $0 +1%
Germany vs. Finland: O/U 5.5 Jun 01 $50 +$2 +4%
Germany vs. Finland: O/U 3.5 May 31 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 1 - 1 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? May 28 $20 +$3 +14%
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 1 - 2 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? May 28 $30 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 0 - 0 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? May 28 $34 +$6 +16%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? May 26 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 25 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 25 $10 $0 +2%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $66 −$12 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $30 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? May 23 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 22 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 22 $50 $0 +1%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? May 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 69¢ $40 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 100¢ $47 39h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? AND Will Spain win BUY 43¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 31¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 95¢ $30 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 97¢ $60 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 23¢ $2 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 27¢ $3 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 29¢ $6 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $10 8d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $15 9d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S SELL G2 Ares 50¢ $20 9d
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 3 Nigeria? BUY No 100¢ $15 9d
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 Nigeria? BUY No 100¢ $15 9d
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 Nigeria? BUY No 100¢ $15 9d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $20 9d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S BUY G2 Ares 37¢ $15 9d
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes 68¢ $116 10d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Poland? BUY No 100¢ $45 10d
Exact Score: Iceland 2 - 1 Spain? BUY No 100¢ $13 10d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-06? BUY No 98¢ $36 13d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 48¢ $5 13d
CB Murcia vs. Barcelona BUY Barcelona 95¢ $20 13d
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Tunisia? BUY No 99¢ $61 13d
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 2 Nicaragua? BUY No 100¢ $48 14d
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Nicaragua? BUY No 100¢ $13 14d
Exact Score: Hungary 3 - 2 Finland? BUY No 97¢ $5 14d
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 84¢ $24 14d
Exact Score: Hungary 3 - 1 Finland? BUY No 94¢ $5 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.76 · official $92.76 (match) · 160 history records