Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:04:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x074d…0198 crypto 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$17,273 (-90%) realized −$17,251 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -88% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -90% what you keep after slip
Net edge-90%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 25L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$638per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$261now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 56% −$9,571
crypto 24% −$3,989
politics 18% −$3,085
world 2% −$395
tech 1% −$226
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-89.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 8 -77.3% -79.5% 12% 12% -83.0%
all 26 -88.3% -89.4% 4% 4% -94.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -89.4% 4% -94.4%
10% -90.5% 4% -94.9%
15% -91.4% 4% -95.4%
20% -92.2% 4% -95.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -81% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -88% · $-wt -94% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -92% → late -85% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$693 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$261
Realized−$17,251
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)26 / 30
History coverage161d
Avg bet$638
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $33 $31 −$3 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? May 19 $191 −$179 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? May 19 $107 −$100 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? Apr 14 $280 −$267 -95%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April? Apr 14 $100 +$81 +81%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? Apr 06 $41 −$38 -93%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? Apr 06 $100 −$93 -93%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? Apr 06 $100 −$93 -93%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? Apr 06 $100 −$93 -93%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Mar 22 $496 −$496 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 26 $4,890 −$3,895 -80%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February? Feb 26 $790 −$790 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? Feb 26 $990 −$990 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in February? Feb 19 $570 −$570 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February? Feb 17 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in February? Feb 17 $305 −$305 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in February? Feb 17 $320 −$320 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 04 $3,000 −$2,728 -91%
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January? Jan 30 $357 −$357 -100%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? Jan 29 $226 −$226 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 20 $5,080 −$5,080 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 6-12? Jan 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 10 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? Jan 10 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16? Jan 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $36 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $53 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $107 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $106 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY Yes 3¢ $84 32d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY Yes 1¢ $107 32d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY Yes 3¢ $107 32d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? BUY Yes 47¢ $180 67d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April? SELL Yes 94¢ $181 67d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? BUY Yes 1¢ $41 75d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? BUY Yes 1¢ $100 75d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? BUY Yes 3¢ $100 75d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? BUY Yes 7¢ $100 75d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? BUY Yes 23¢ $100 75d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 75d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $496 90d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes 2¢ $200 114d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February? BUY Yes 0¢ $50 114d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 114d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes 2¢ $490 115d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? BUY Yes 1¢ $100 118d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes 4¢ $1,000 119d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes 5¢ $800 120d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February? BUY Yes 2¢ $100 120d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? BUY Yes 2¢ $100 120d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in February? BUY Yes 1¢ $100 121d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February? BUY Yes 1¢ $100 121d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? BUY Yes 2¢ $100 121d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes 6¢ $700 121d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in February? BUY Yes 1¢ $100 122d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $261.05 · official $261.05 (match) · 98 history records